We've reached middle Sunday of Wimbledon 2013 and so, I thought I'd give a quick update on how my tournament trades have gone thus far. I'm not going to get into any Rafa, Roger, Sharapova, injuries, withdrawals or slippery grass issues as it's been done to death elsewhere and my blog is really about trading rather than news/gossip/waffle.
It's only a quick post because the sun is actually shining and I don't want to miss 'summer' while its here!
Q1 Review - Gasquet OUT - From what I saw, he never really looked that settled. Dropped a set in each of his two victories and although all four sets in his loss to Tomic were close, I had a bad feeling throughout the match which proved to be spot on.
Q1 Week 2 - Tomic has surprised me but he's always had the potential and I quite fancy him to cause Berdych some problems so, will be trading that one inplay. Haas has done well too but none of them will get close to Djokovic on current form, he was imperious against Chardy.
Q2 Review - Dimitrov OUT - Disappointing, especially the end when he twice had to come out and hold serve to stay in event after a rain delay but couldn't maintain any momentum from doing so.
Q2 Week 2 - Dogic and Seppi have done very well to get this far but it's hard to see anything but a Ferrer v Delpo QF as intended by the seedings. Ferrer has been making hard work of it so far while, Delpo hasn't dropped a set despite some close ones. I'll be opposing Ferrer inplay if they do meet in the QF, Delpo's won a slam before and his huge game really should pay more dividends on grass, is this the year for him?
Q3 Review - Wawrinka OUT, Janowicz IN - The less said about Wawrinka losing to the Oz rat Hewitt, the better. On the bright side Janowicz was backed at 36 to win the quarter and now looks nailed on to win it. However, I've traded out (weighted heavily towards JJ) because his price is very low and he is carrying an injury which could flare up and ruin a very nice trade. My aim with these trades is generally to take liabilities out at half the price or better and he clearly flew past that so I'm happy whatever happens now.
Q3 Week 2 - After all the shocks in the first week, I fully expect Janowicz to win the quarter and trouble Murray in the semi final. Again I'll be trading that one inplay so keep an eye on Twitter for updates.
Q4 Review - Youznhy IN - He's done well (as I thought he would), to reach this stage but with Murray such a strong favourite his price hasn't really moved enough to take any great profit it. That could change dramatically tomorrow of course but only if he beats Murray.....happy with my small profit.
Q4 Week 2 - Murray wins this quarter, his half and the whole damn thing!
Outright - I'm on Murray and happy to let it ride until the final before playing with profits. I also backed two women in the outright market when a few upsets started happening. Jankovic and Stephens, sadly JJ crashed and burned but Slone Stephens has battled well to reach the last 16. Having backed her at 75 and with Bartoli & Kvitova still in her half, I've taken my liability out for a free bet which I'll monitor closely but with a bit of luck she can make the semi at least.
One thing I have noted is that, I should also back these quarter winner picks in the Outright Winner market too (could have had Janowicz at 340) because you never know who might lose early. So, that's the approach I'll take with the US Open.
That's it, off to chill now and looking forward to what could be an historic week at Wimbledon next week. Good luck with your trading and catch you on Twitter.
@DarkDyson
Sunday, 30 June 2013
Saturday, 22 June 2013
Wimbledon 2013 - Men's Back2Lay
Unfortunately I've not been able to do as much tennis trading this season as I'd have liked but with the Premier League back in full force before long, it's a good opportunity to make the most of time with the family.
Having said that Wimbledon begins on Monday and it's very close to being my favourite sporting event of the year. So, I'll be watching as much as possible and trading here and there as well. I've decided not to trade the Grand Slam events as much this year, simply because best of 5 set tennis can be very long and I just don't have the time. I could obviously still trade a lot of the womens event but I'm not fully up to speed with the players so wouldn't be as confident about making a decent profit from it.
The draw was completed today and it's thrown up some very interesting possibilities (due in part to Rafa being seeded 5th this year), but as I tweeted at the time, I really can't see Roger or Rafa winning the 3 big matches back to back, that it'll take for either of them to win this seasons Wimbledon title. There's no doubt that either of them could still win but I have serious enough question marks over both previous champions, to rule them out this time round.
Which, to put it bluntly means either Andy Murray or Novak Djokovic will win Wimbledon this year. Hardly ground breaking news there but that's my opinion and the Outright Winners market agrees. Djokovic is clear favourite and his price saw a healthy steam in today (2.70 ish into 2.38 now) after the draw left him alone in the top half, while Murray, Rafa and Roger were grouped together in the bottom half. Murray is clear 2nd favourite at 4.80, Rafa 3rd on 5.90 and Roger out at 10.00.
While I won't be trading many of the mens matches, I do intend to trade the longer term markets such as Outright Winner and the Quarter Winner markets (although liquidity might take a few days to build up in the Quarter markets). Obviously, I'm convinced that both Djokovic and Murray will be winning their quarters without too much trouble so, I'll start with Roger and Rafa's quarter.
Rafa's results since returning from injury shortly after this seasons Australian Open, have been nothing short of spectacular. However, his actual form hasn't quite been as good as the results suggest, but that does prove what an immense competitor and champion he really is. If anybody could beat Roger, Murray and Djokovic in successive matches, he could. His record of 36-6 at Wimbledon backs that up and he made 5 finals in a row here before he ran into a laser guided, missile attack from Lukas Rosol last year which nobody could have survived.
Roger's results have been in stark contrast to Rafa's successes this year, with just the single title to his name coming in Halle recently. However, he even lost the first set in the final there against Mikhail Youzhny. He's also lost against Rafa (twice), Murray, Berdych, Tsonga, Nishikori and Benneteau. The greatest tennis player of all time, is in undisputed decline and if he makes it to the scheduled QF against Rafa, I'd fully expect Rafa to win and probably in 4 sets.
It's going to take something similar to Rosol's performance of last year again from a lower ranked player to knock out any of the favourites. In this quarter there are two such players who I like, with the power to push Rafa or Roger, if they're hitting the lines and the previous champions start slowly. Stan Wawrinka possesses one of the very best & most powerful, single handed backhands in the game and while it's hard to make a case for him beating Rafa if they meet as scheduled in R4. It wouldn't be shock to see him take a set or maybe even more, especially if Rafa hasn't looked comfortable in his previous matches.
The other outsider I like in this quarter is the young Polish giant, Jerzy Janowicz. His high powered game and all action approach to tennis, makes him very entertaining to watch & potentially one who could be headed for the very top of the game. Last year he had to go through qualifying but ended up making the 3rd round where he took Florian Mayer to 5 sets. I think he can reach that stage again and when there, if he gets past Almagro (who's never been past R3 himself), the 4th round match against Roger should be a great game to watch. Janowicz is still very inexperienced and his animated and exuberant outbursts on court have rubbed some players up the wrong way, including Roger himself when they met in the Rome Masters earlier this season. Also note, that Lukas Rosol is a potential R3 opponent for Roger and I think this could be the first time in many years that the great man fails to reach the QF of slam.
The other quarter of real interest is David Ferrer's, who although seeded 4th in the world and for Wimbledon, has only reached the QF's here once before. On top of that, which makes this quarter by far the most interesting is the fact that he's lined up to meet Del Potro in the QF. Del Potro seems to have a game that's made for grass and he's one of the very few Grand Slam winners currently playing the game but he's never made the QF's at Wimbledon! While he could finally arrive at the event this year, I for one won't be backing him to do so. Unfortunately, there's not a great deal of competition to get excited about for either of these weak favourites in this quarter with Raonic, Nishikori & Kohlschreiber all potential candidates to provide an upset. However, I'm going for another young gun in Grigor Dimitrov to steal some headlines by beating Del Potro in R3. He doesn't have much of a record at Wimbledon but a victory over Djokovic earlier in the year shows that, he's starting to realise his potential. It's the best option of a fairly average bunch to be honest which, is a shame because although I expect Ferrer to tough it out in the end and win this quarter, it's a solid opportunity for someone to burst out of the pack and make the Wimbledon semi finals.
Quickly back to the top two seeds and their quarters now. I honestly don't see anyone getting close to Djokovic but there is potential for his seeded QF opponent, Berdych to get knocked out early. Although he's reached the final here before, his overall record at Wimbledon isn't great, he's only reached one other QF. Also, he's not having a standout year by any means with losses against Robredo, Fognini, Cilic, Monfils, Gasquet and more, his confidence can't be that high. It's one of these previous winners who I like to upset the big Czech in the QF should they meet there as planned. Richard Gasquet, is having a solid year so far and has reached a Wimbledon semi final before. If he's on form, he's definitely got a real chance to get to that stage again in 2013.
Finally Murray's quarter which, I think should be straight forward enough for both he and Tsonga to meet in the QF but there are some dangers along the way. Youzhny (as mentioned earlier) is in great form and could well upset the inconsistent Tipsarevic and play Murray in R4. Tsonga has a pretty tough section with his opening match against Goffin, potentially followed by Gulbis and then probably Cilic in R4. Still, he should get past that lot to face Murray (and lose) in the QF.
Summary -
Most likely Quarter winners - Djokovic, Ferrer, Nadal, Murray
Potential to upset in Q1 - Gasquet
Potential to upset in Q2 - Dimitrov
Potential to upset in Q3 - Wawrinka & Janowicz
Potential to upset in Q4 - Youzhny
Despite the low liquidity, I prefer using the Quarter Winner markets for tournament trading these B2L ousiders because, if any of the top 8 seeds lose unexpectedly early, one of my long shots will benefit. The Outright Winner market is so top heavy with Djoko, Murray & Rafa that the outsiders prices won't shorten hugely as there's still not very much chance of them winning the event. Obviously, the players who's price would contract the most would be the remaining fav's. However, it's not often that you see the men's 4th seed priced at 75.00 (has been matched higher as well) in the Outright Winners market and based on his relatively straight forward section (see above), Ferrer reallly should be making his first semi final this year at Wimbledon. With that in mind, it's worth going for a B2L trade on him in the outright market and saying that if you think Federer can recapture his best form and beat Nadal (if he gets to the QF himself) to reach the semi's, he too could be a B2L option at 11.00 although I won't be on that myself.
I hope this has been of some use in your Wimbledon research and I'll try and post some further thoughts as the tournament progresses. No doubt there'll be some surprises over the next two weeks but my money is on a Murray win over Djokovic in the final. Good luck if trading and look out for my tweets, @DarkDyson.
Having said that Wimbledon begins on Monday and it's very close to being my favourite sporting event of the year. So, I'll be watching as much as possible and trading here and there as well. I've decided not to trade the Grand Slam events as much this year, simply because best of 5 set tennis can be very long and I just don't have the time. I could obviously still trade a lot of the womens event but I'm not fully up to speed with the players so wouldn't be as confident about making a decent profit from it.
The draw was completed today and it's thrown up some very interesting possibilities (due in part to Rafa being seeded 5th this year), but as I tweeted at the time, I really can't see Roger or Rafa winning the 3 big matches back to back, that it'll take for either of them to win this seasons Wimbledon title. There's no doubt that either of them could still win but I have serious enough question marks over both previous champions, to rule them out this time round.
Which, to put it bluntly means either Andy Murray or Novak Djokovic will win Wimbledon this year. Hardly ground breaking news there but that's my opinion and the Outright Winners market agrees. Djokovic is clear favourite and his price saw a healthy steam in today (2.70 ish into 2.38 now) after the draw left him alone in the top half, while Murray, Rafa and Roger were grouped together in the bottom half. Murray is clear 2nd favourite at 4.80, Rafa 3rd on 5.90 and Roger out at 10.00.
While I won't be trading many of the mens matches, I do intend to trade the longer term markets such as Outright Winner and the Quarter Winner markets (although liquidity might take a few days to build up in the Quarter markets). Obviously, I'm convinced that both Djokovic and Murray will be winning their quarters without too much trouble so, I'll start with Roger and Rafa's quarter.
Rafa's results since returning from injury shortly after this seasons Australian Open, have been nothing short of spectacular. However, his actual form hasn't quite been as good as the results suggest, but that does prove what an immense competitor and champion he really is. If anybody could beat Roger, Murray and Djokovic in successive matches, he could. His record of 36-6 at Wimbledon backs that up and he made 5 finals in a row here before he ran into a laser guided, missile attack from Lukas Rosol last year which nobody could have survived.
Roger's results have been in stark contrast to Rafa's successes this year, with just the single title to his name coming in Halle recently. However, he even lost the first set in the final there against Mikhail Youzhny. He's also lost against Rafa (twice), Murray, Berdych, Tsonga, Nishikori and Benneteau. The greatest tennis player of all time, is in undisputed decline and if he makes it to the scheduled QF against Rafa, I'd fully expect Rafa to win and probably in 4 sets.
It's going to take something similar to Rosol's performance of last year again from a lower ranked player to knock out any of the favourites. In this quarter there are two such players who I like, with the power to push Rafa or Roger, if they're hitting the lines and the previous champions start slowly. Stan Wawrinka possesses one of the very best & most powerful, single handed backhands in the game and while it's hard to make a case for him beating Rafa if they meet as scheduled in R4. It wouldn't be shock to see him take a set or maybe even more, especially if Rafa hasn't looked comfortable in his previous matches.
The other outsider I like in this quarter is the young Polish giant, Jerzy Janowicz. His high powered game and all action approach to tennis, makes him very entertaining to watch & potentially one who could be headed for the very top of the game. Last year he had to go through qualifying but ended up making the 3rd round where he took Florian Mayer to 5 sets. I think he can reach that stage again and when there, if he gets past Almagro (who's never been past R3 himself), the 4th round match against Roger should be a great game to watch. Janowicz is still very inexperienced and his animated and exuberant outbursts on court have rubbed some players up the wrong way, including Roger himself when they met in the Rome Masters earlier this season. Also note, that Lukas Rosol is a potential R3 opponent for Roger and I think this could be the first time in many years that the great man fails to reach the QF of slam.
The other quarter of real interest is David Ferrer's, who although seeded 4th in the world and for Wimbledon, has only reached the QF's here once before. On top of that, which makes this quarter by far the most interesting is the fact that he's lined up to meet Del Potro in the QF. Del Potro seems to have a game that's made for grass and he's one of the very few Grand Slam winners currently playing the game but he's never made the QF's at Wimbledon! While he could finally arrive at the event this year, I for one won't be backing him to do so. Unfortunately, there's not a great deal of competition to get excited about for either of these weak favourites in this quarter with Raonic, Nishikori & Kohlschreiber all potential candidates to provide an upset. However, I'm going for another young gun in Grigor Dimitrov to steal some headlines by beating Del Potro in R3. He doesn't have much of a record at Wimbledon but a victory over Djokovic earlier in the year shows that, he's starting to realise his potential. It's the best option of a fairly average bunch to be honest which, is a shame because although I expect Ferrer to tough it out in the end and win this quarter, it's a solid opportunity for someone to burst out of the pack and make the Wimbledon semi finals.
Quickly back to the top two seeds and their quarters now. I honestly don't see anyone getting close to Djokovic but there is potential for his seeded QF opponent, Berdych to get knocked out early. Although he's reached the final here before, his overall record at Wimbledon isn't great, he's only reached one other QF. Also, he's not having a standout year by any means with losses against Robredo, Fognini, Cilic, Monfils, Gasquet and more, his confidence can't be that high. It's one of these previous winners who I like to upset the big Czech in the QF should they meet there as planned. Richard Gasquet, is having a solid year so far and has reached a Wimbledon semi final before. If he's on form, he's definitely got a real chance to get to that stage again in 2013.
Finally Murray's quarter which, I think should be straight forward enough for both he and Tsonga to meet in the QF but there are some dangers along the way. Youzhny (as mentioned earlier) is in great form and could well upset the inconsistent Tipsarevic and play Murray in R4. Tsonga has a pretty tough section with his opening match against Goffin, potentially followed by Gulbis and then probably Cilic in R4. Still, he should get past that lot to face Murray (and lose) in the QF.
Summary -
Most likely Quarter winners - Djokovic, Ferrer, Nadal, Murray
Potential to upset in Q1 - Gasquet
Potential to upset in Q2 - Dimitrov
Potential to upset in Q3 - Wawrinka & Janowicz
Potential to upset in Q4 - Youzhny
Despite the low liquidity, I prefer using the Quarter Winner markets for tournament trading these B2L ousiders because, if any of the top 8 seeds lose unexpectedly early, one of my long shots will benefit. The Outright Winner market is so top heavy with Djoko, Murray & Rafa that the outsiders prices won't shorten hugely as there's still not very much chance of them winning the event. Obviously, the players who's price would contract the most would be the remaining fav's. However, it's not often that you see the men's 4th seed priced at 75.00 (has been matched higher as well) in the Outright Winners market and based on his relatively straight forward section (see above), Ferrer reallly should be making his first semi final this year at Wimbledon. With that in mind, it's worth going for a B2L trade on him in the outright market and saying that if you think Federer can recapture his best form and beat Nadal (if he gets to the QF himself) to reach the semi's, he too could be a B2L option at 11.00 although I won't be on that myself.
I hope this has been of some use in your Wimbledon research and I'll try and post some further thoughts as the tournament progresses. No doubt there'll be some surprises over the next two weeks but my money is on a Murray win over Djokovic in the final. Good luck if trading and look out for my tweets, @DarkDyson.
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