Endgame - Football Strategy

Lay No Goal with 2-4% liability in Next Goal market between 75-80mins at 2.00 or less.

The Endgame strategy is one which Gregg (@GreggMac11) a sports trading pal of mine came up with (thanks G). The strategy is a simple but effective strategy which is actually a straight bet rather than a trade but it came out of frustration from closing other goal demander strategies shortly before the goals appeared to start flying in again.

We're simply looking to take advantage of any goals which are scored after the 75th minute of a match. Using a site such as Soccerstats it's easy to find out which teams score/concede late goals on a regular basis and by using the stats as a guide, you can improve the strike rate of this strategy. The Next Goal market on Betfair allows us to lay 'no goal' at around 1.90 to 2.00 by the 75th minute in most games but the real benefit of using this market is that the price can often be lower than that. Also, the price drops very quickly from this point onwards so, dripping your lay into the market over two or three parts is a viable option. However, it's always preferable to be in the market for as long as possible so, if dripping in I like to be fully matched before the 80th minute.

The Endgame strategy works perfectly well as a stand alone position with a 2% of bank liability (G, has been making some very nice profit from it this season as a stand alone position on any match which fits his criteria) but if you're trading a live match and have profits already locked in from earlier trades, you can be much more aggressive with this strategy.

Generally we'll open this strategy on any match except those which are still goalless after 75mins and sometimes those which are 2-0 as you'll often find these games finish without any further goals. This is a new strategy we've been using this season so, there's plenty of research to be done during the summer to help optimise it but the early indications are very promising. The Over/Under goal market and a lay of the draw in Match Odds are alternative market options which can be used for Endgame as well.