First trading preview of the new season, doesn't it seem a long time since Man Utd lifted yet another Premier League trophy back in May?
So much has changed since then as well, with the top 3 from last season all changing their managers for one reason or another. It certainly looks like being the closest title race for sometime with Man Utd seemingly being dragged back into the pack by the media & fan fuelled lack of confidence in David Moyes ability to guide the Champions to glory. Not to mentioned their abject failure in the transfer market so far and poor pre season results. However, I'm sure Utd will be there or thereabouts come April/May next year.
Just before we get into the full preview, I just wanted to let you know that I'm planning on trading fewer matches this season but increasing the number of bets I'm doing. The main reasons for this are; time, I've got two young sons and a full time job so time for trading is at a premium and in my experience, less is more in terms of trading. There's simply no need to trade every match, there's loads to choose from so being selective and putting more focussed time and effort into each one will only increase the probability of profitable trading sessions. Finally, you'll notice I won't trade or bet on any match with a newly promoted side playing in it. I simply don't know enough about the teams and tactics of the new sides and have no relevant historical data to produce my tissue prices from.
So, Swansea V Man Utd is the first game I'm trading and the first thing which stands out is the huge value available on the champions. It's clear that the betting world has decided that Man Utd without Sir Alex Ferguson, are simply there for the taking and so their price has done nothing but drift since the markets opened. While I wasn't keen on Moyes taking over, I refuse to write off the champions simply based on the change of manager but I'm glad the betting world has because for the first time in a long while, it looks like there'll be great value on Utd every time they play!
Tissue Price
Swansea at 5.17
Draw at 4.42
Man Utd at 1.72 current Betfair price at 2.06
Unders at 2.13
Overs at 1.88
As you can see above the value is all with Utd as explained and I'll certainly be looking to back them in a Pre Match Trade (PMT) when the teams are announced an hour before KO but based on last weeks community shield pre match movement and the old trading saying, 'The trend is your friend', I'm going to be ready to switch to the other side and lay Utd if the drfit trend proves to be too strong to reverse. My head is saying that it won't reverse but it is a very big price, surely big enough to tempt the sheep into backing Utd? Only time will tell and hopefully, I'll be ready to capitalise whatever happens. What we really need is Michu (Swansea's key market mover), to get injured during the warm up which would definietly result in a nice steam on Utd's price.
In terms of in play trading, there's some interesting stats which give us a useful guide into what's most likely to happen during the match.
Firstly, the home & away form against teams in the same grade and the Over 2.5 goals stats. Swansea have a W1 D4 L1 record in the last 6 at home against grade 1 (G1) teams and 0% of those last 6 games went Over 2.5 goals. Meanwhile Utd have a W4 D2 L0 record in the last 6 away against grade 3 (G3) teams, with only 33% going Over 2.5 goals. Clearly, these stats point to a low scoring match and either a draw or Utd win. However, it's worth noting that Swansea's home stats for Over 2.5 goals increase dramatically, to 63% of games going Over 2.5, when we look at their home form for the whole of last season. Utd's also increase to 52% for the season as a whole which, strongly suggests that Swansea play a more reserved game against the best sides. Obviously, they play a short passing, possession style game but it seems as though they don't attack as regularly or commit as many players to those attacks when playing the top teams. This theory is backed up by the fact that Swansea only managed to get 5 or more shots on target in just two of those six games. But, it's a game plan that has worked well for them recently as the record of just one loss in six illustrates.
The research tells me that this match is most likely to be low scoring which potentially rules out my TOOT strategy from this game but, as every trader knows we should be ready to adapt the plan during the match if it looks like the trends and stats we've researched aren't continuing in the game being played out infront of us. So, although I'll primarliy looking to do TD trading during this game, I am prepared to jump on just Part 2 of the TOOT strategy if the situation and prices are right.
The other set of stats I like to research are the time of goal stats. Again looking at the matches involving same grade teams and then overall as well. With these stats I brake the match down into 15min sections (the same as my trading sheet, you might have seen a recent previous post) because they correspond nicely with the strategies I use in play. A couple of things which are of interest to me in this match are that Utd's away games, both against the G3 sides and away games overall, had a lot of early goals in them.
There were 11 goals scored in the first 15mins of Utd's away games and a further 14 goals scored between 16 and 30mins. This trend was also prevalent in the last six away games against the G3 teams such as Swansea, with 7 of the 21 goals (33%) scored coming in the first 30mins of those matches. Swansea's goal times against G1 teams however, are heavily weighted towards the end of the matches, with 6 of the 9 goals coming after the 60th minute. With these mixed stats, it's harder to draw any firm conclusions but it would pay to be very careful when trying to trade the TD strat during the first 15mins of the match on Saturday because of Utd's tendency to score early. However, yet again the flexibility of a trader comes into play here because if we do see an early goal, it could really open the match up and we'll be able to profit using other strategies instead of the planned TD strat.
Finally, in terms of straight bets on this match Utd are clearly value at anything above 1.85 and although it's a tough away match to start the season, it'll pay in the long term if you're always backing the value bet. There's also a bit of value and logic in backing the HT draw at 2.20 or more and backing the 2nd half to be the highest scoring at 2.10 or more. Plus, because of the big price on Utd in the match odds market, other markets such as Asian Handicaps & Double Chance are also value despite still being short.
It's great to be back trading some real football again and as usual you can keep up to date with my trades and general ramblings via Twitter. Good luck this weekend and don't forget to tred carefully during these opening weeks of the season when we've got no real current form to go on, anything can and usually does happen.
Cheers,
@DarkDyson
Thursday, 15 August 2013
Tuesday, 13 August 2013
New season trading info
Unfortunately, due to a technical issue I've lost the final part of my early season trades series but I'm planning a quick summary post of all the early season trades I'm looking at so, I'll include them in that but, obviously there won't be full reasoning to go with them.
Onto this post, it's just a bit of house keeping really which follows on from last season and just explains a few tools I use for my trading and betting. Firstly, you'll often see in my match previews that I grade all the EPL teams which really helps when doing the research for any given match. Obviously, teams perform better against certain grades than others and it's important to be able to narrow all the stats down to the most relevant ones for your needs.
My grades are divided into four levels with 1 being the top grade and 4 the bottom. A couple of things to note are that once the grades are set at the start of the season, I only review them once halfway through the season and it's still rare that a team will change grade even then. Spurs & Arsenal have come the closest to changing in the last two seasons but in the end I left them as they were. Also, when researching games between grade 1 & grade 2 teams, I actually use combined stats from both grades because the sample size from just one of the those grades is too small. Plus, grade 2 teams can beat grade 1 teams on any given day, it's their consistency over the whole season which ultimately lets them down when it comes to the title race.
My gradings -
Grade 1 - Man Utd, Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal
Grade 2 - Spurs, Liverpool, Everton
Grade 3 - WBA, Swansea, Norwich, Fulham, Stoke, Aston Villa, Newcastle, Sunderland
Grade 4 - West Ham, Southampton, Cardiff, Hull, Palace
I'll only move a team up from grade 4 into grade 3 after they've survived at least 2 seasons in the Premier League and hence show the capability to develop into an established EPL team.
It might seem a little harsh on WBA and Swansea in particular to have them in with teams who battled relegation all season long but although they've done well recently it still wouldn't be huge surprise to see teams like them struggle the season after a successful one. Conversely, it wouldn't be a total shock to see one of the other grade 3 teams rediscover some form and end up finishing up near 7th place.
Similarly, it would take a few seasons of Spurs finishing in 4th ahead of Arsenal for them to switch places, although there is potential for the top grade to include 5 teams if Spurs can really mount a sustained challenge for the title. Then again it seems more likely that it might only be 3 teams in the top grade, if neither North London club manages to keep pace with the big 3. I guess only time will tell but for research purposes, I'm happy with these gradings for the upcoming season.
Along with the gradings, I look for each teams key players in terms of potential pre match market moves. For example if RVP is rested for a match, Man Utds price will drift to reflect their weakened team and reduced confidence in them winning the match. This list is one that can change during the season but it will take a number of months for a player to reach a level where his absence is viewed as critical to a teams prospects of winning. Especially, with a new signing who's never played in the EPL before.
Key players 2013/14 -
Manchester United - RVP & De Gea
Manchester City - Hart, Kompany, Aguero
Spurs - Bale, lloris
Chelsea - Mata, Cech
Arsenal - Carzola
Everton - Fellaini, Howard, Baines
Liverpool - Suarez
West Brom - maybe Foster
Swansea - Michu
Fulham - Berbatov
West Ham - maybe Jussi
Southampton - Lambert
Stoke - Begovic
Norwich - ............
Newcastle - Krul & maybe Cabaye
Sunderland - .........
Aston Villa - Benteke
Cardiff -.............
Hull -...........
Palace........
You can see last season list here, if you want to compare -
http://tradinginthedark.blogspot.co.uk/p/football.html
As mentioned this can change during the season and is very much open to debate. Also, it'll be interesting to see what happens with a few teams because of their managerial changes. It seems as though the market has lost a lot of confidence in Man Utd now Fergie has gone, I was astonished to see them priced at 1.5+ for the Community Shield against Wigan, despite fielding a strong team the price actually drifted a little further before kick off. I suspect that unless they got off the flyer this season Utd will continue to be great value which, I for one will be all over like a rash. As RVP said after the match on Sunday when asked about Utd being rated as third fav's by the bookies, he said - "i'm not being funny but, we are the champions", this tells me despite the lack of signings and change of manager the teams is in the right frame of mind and are confident of success during the coming season.
Chelsea due to Mourinho and Man City due to all their signings could see a Liverpool like effect pre match, with their price steaming in regarless of team news. Either way, there'll be some great opportunities to profit so keep an eye on Twitter for live updates on both pre match trades and in play.
Finally, you'll also notice that I won't be trading or betting on any match which involves a newly promoted team, for around the first 6 games of the season. I simply don't know enough about them and with their form from last season being of absolutely no use whatsoever this season, I'm quite happy to ignore them and find better opportunities amongst the other seven fixtures during those opening weeks of the season. Naturally, if some obvious/strong early trend appears with one of the new sides, I'll investigate it further but there's more than enough to work with in the other games anyway.
Cheers & good luck,
@DarkDyson
Onto this post, it's just a bit of house keeping really which follows on from last season and just explains a few tools I use for my trading and betting. Firstly, you'll often see in my match previews that I grade all the EPL teams which really helps when doing the research for any given match. Obviously, teams perform better against certain grades than others and it's important to be able to narrow all the stats down to the most relevant ones for your needs.
My grades are divided into four levels with 1 being the top grade and 4 the bottom. A couple of things to note are that once the grades are set at the start of the season, I only review them once halfway through the season and it's still rare that a team will change grade even then. Spurs & Arsenal have come the closest to changing in the last two seasons but in the end I left them as they were. Also, when researching games between grade 1 & grade 2 teams, I actually use combined stats from both grades because the sample size from just one of the those grades is too small. Plus, grade 2 teams can beat grade 1 teams on any given day, it's their consistency over the whole season which ultimately lets them down when it comes to the title race.
My gradings -
Grade 1 - Man Utd, Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal
Grade 2 - Spurs, Liverpool, Everton
Grade 3 - WBA, Swansea, Norwich, Fulham, Stoke, Aston Villa, Newcastle, Sunderland
Grade 4 - West Ham, Southampton, Cardiff, Hull, Palace
I'll only move a team up from grade 4 into grade 3 after they've survived at least 2 seasons in the Premier League and hence show the capability to develop into an established EPL team.
It might seem a little harsh on WBA and Swansea in particular to have them in with teams who battled relegation all season long but although they've done well recently it still wouldn't be huge surprise to see teams like them struggle the season after a successful one. Conversely, it wouldn't be a total shock to see one of the other grade 3 teams rediscover some form and end up finishing up near 7th place.
Similarly, it would take a few seasons of Spurs finishing in 4th ahead of Arsenal for them to switch places, although there is potential for the top grade to include 5 teams if Spurs can really mount a sustained challenge for the title. Then again it seems more likely that it might only be 3 teams in the top grade, if neither North London club manages to keep pace with the big 3. I guess only time will tell but for research purposes, I'm happy with these gradings for the upcoming season.
Along with the gradings, I look for each teams key players in terms of potential pre match market moves. For example if RVP is rested for a match, Man Utds price will drift to reflect their weakened team and reduced confidence in them winning the match. This list is one that can change during the season but it will take a number of months for a player to reach a level where his absence is viewed as critical to a teams prospects of winning. Especially, with a new signing who's never played in the EPL before.
Key players 2013/14 -
Manchester United - RVP & De Gea
Manchester City - Hart, Kompany, Aguero
Spurs - Bale, lloris
Chelsea - Mata, Cech
Arsenal - Carzola
Everton - Fellaini, Howard, Baines
Liverpool - Suarez
West Brom - maybe Foster
Swansea - Michu
Fulham - Berbatov
West Ham - maybe Jussi
Southampton - Lambert
Stoke - Begovic
Norwich - ............
Newcastle - Krul & maybe Cabaye
Sunderland - .........
Aston Villa - Benteke
Cardiff -.............
Hull -...........
Palace........
You can see last season list here, if you want to compare -
http://tradinginthedark.blogspot.co.uk/p/football.html
As mentioned this can change during the season and is very much open to debate. Also, it'll be interesting to see what happens with a few teams because of their managerial changes. It seems as though the market has lost a lot of confidence in Man Utd now Fergie has gone, I was astonished to see them priced at 1.5+ for the Community Shield against Wigan, despite fielding a strong team the price actually drifted a little further before kick off. I suspect that unless they got off the flyer this season Utd will continue to be great value which, I for one will be all over like a rash. As RVP said after the match on Sunday when asked about Utd being rated as third fav's by the bookies, he said - "i'm not being funny but, we are the champions", this tells me despite the lack of signings and change of manager the teams is in the right frame of mind and are confident of success during the coming season.
Chelsea due to Mourinho and Man City due to all their signings could see a Liverpool like effect pre match, with their price steaming in regarless of team news. Either way, there'll be some great opportunities to profit so keep an eye on Twitter for live updates on both pre match trades and in play.
Finally, you'll also notice that I won't be trading or betting on any match which involves a newly promoted team, for around the first 6 games of the season. I simply don't know enough about them and with their form from last season being of absolutely no use whatsoever this season, I'm quite happy to ignore them and find better opportunities amongst the other seven fixtures during those opening weeks of the season. Naturally, if some obvious/strong early trend appears with one of the new sides, I'll investigate it further but there's more than enough to work with in the other games anyway.
Cheers & good luck,
@DarkDyson
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