I had a busy week last week and didn't get time to run through the matches so, didn't put any bets up but this week hasn't been so hectic. The bets and overview of the reasoning for each are shown below. As always, don't forget these are simply my small interest bets for the weekend and I put them up on the blog partly to avoid sounding like an aftertimer when they win (hopefully) and partly as a way of staying disciplined. I do my research, pick the bets, post them on here and put the money down at Betfair, then I'm done for the weekend.
If you like the sound of some or all them and back them, good luck. If not, good luck with your own bets but remember we're into the final few games of the season and as such results become even more unpredictable than usual.
Please note these bets where taken last night and some of the prices have obviously changed since then but, all of them have gone the right way for you as you can now get even better value than I got last night. Spurs drifting is the most surprising move and Southampton have shortened even further.
Man City V West Ham - City/City in HT/FT @1.85
City have been leading at HT in 7 of the last 10 home matches against similar level (Grade C & D) opposition and went on to win all 10 games as well. Meanwhile, the Hammers have been poor away from home this season and in their last 10 away games against Grade A teams, they've been behind at HT....you guessed it 7 times and yes, they also went on to lose all 10 matches. City don't score a lot of first half goals and West Ham did well to keep a clean sheet at Anfield recently but with such strong trends and a decent price, this bet has to be taken in my opinion.
Final score 2-1, winning bet no prob's, the trend is your friend!
Southampton V WBA - WBA Double Chance @2.00
Saints are on a run of 6 unbeaten which has seen them move away from the relegation zone with surprising ease. WBA on the other hand have dropped off with just 3 wins in their last 10 games which I guess is the main reason behind the current prices on offer. Saints @1.87 and WBA @4.70 which looks like some good value on WBA as my tissue price has them @3.65 but, I'm not overly confident about them being able to win given the current form & end of season unpredictability so double chance makes more sense while still being value.
Final score 0-3, winning bet and again very comfortable in the end.
Stoke V Norwich - Draw/Stoke in HT/FT @6.20
Stoke finally managed to win a match last week for only the second time in 15 games & Norwich also took a much needed 3 points which leaves both clubs just one win from safety. However, if ever a match screamed Under 2.5 goals then this is it and obviously the prices reflect this with Unders priced about right @1.61 but I do think Stoke will be thinking this is a match they can win, especially after last week. Norwich can be a tough nut to crack and would probably take a draw but I think Stoke could grab a 2nd half winner and the price is very tempting.
Final score 1-0, winning bet and a big price too!
Wigan V Spurs - Spurs to win @2.12
A huge game for both ends of the table which at first glance looks like a goalfest waiting to happen and perhaps a little surprisingly the Over 2.5 goals price isn't as short as I'd been expecting but it's still not really big enough to back. Also, with Wigan only scoring 2 in their last 4 games we could be left with just Spurs scoring the goals. I've got Spurs at sub 2.0 on my tissue prices so, with them available above evens they're easy to back and should come out on top in the end.
Final score 2-2, losing bet and 2 HUGE dropped points by Spurs although they nearly lost.
Everton V Fulham - Under 2.5 goals @2.24
Everton are good 25 ticks too short on my tissue which obviously makes Fulham good value but their performances have dropped off, despite battling well against Arsenal last week. Backing the value bet is always the best option but when a team has nothing to play for, like Fulham today I'd rather try and find some value in other markets. Under 2.5 goals looks very good value and would have been a winning bet in 5 of Evertons last 6 games and 4 of Fulhams last 6.
Final score 1-0, winning bet thanks to current form and another value price.
Newcastle V Liverpool - Lay Liverpool @2.48
As usual Liverpool are too short and even more so this week considering their star embarressment is serving the first match of a 10 match ban this weekend. As stated previously, I'm going back to the tried and tested play of simply laying Liverpool. It's been a very profitable play over the past few seasons, especially when they play at home but this week Newcastle are value and need the points to avoid relegation. Liverpool have nothing to play for in reality as they probably won't catch Everton now so, I expect Newcastle to take at least one point if not all three.
Final score 0-6, losing bet and embarressing from Newcastle.
That's it for now but I'll add Sunday and Monday bets to this post later so, keep an eye out for that. Good luck with your betting/trading this weekend and I'll catch you on Twitter to celebrate with a few, BOOMs!
Cheers,
@DarkDyson
Saturday, 27 April 2013
Thursday, 25 April 2013
NFL - The Draft 2013
Tonight in New York the NFL draft begins and my good friend @Echelon_85 has kindly written a draft preview, to give everyone some great insight into which teams will be aiming to pick up which of the latest talent available from college football. I'm sure you'll enjoy and learn from his post and when the season starts, he'll be a regular contributor to the blog too. I hope your team picks up what they need over the next few days!
Cheers,
@DarkDyson
Cheers,
@DarkDyson
Draft Preview by @Echelon_85 follow him on Twitter for more great NFL views & news
This year’s NFL Draft is going to be a lot different compared to those
of recent years. It’s not a top-heavy draft with a clear #1 pick like there was
with Cam Newton in 2011 and Andrew Luck in 2012 - players that are going to go
in the top 5 picks this year would more likely be have gone in the latter half
of the 1st round last year. Normally you’d have a good idea as to who the top 7
or 8 picks are going to be, but this year is different and even the players you
expect to go in the top 10 have some question marks over them. When 2 Guards
(Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper) are widely considered to be the safest
picks this year you know there’s a lack of, perceived, star quality at the top
end of the draft.
As a result, I expect that teams will have completely different grades
on a lot of players and I would think there isn’t too much of a difference in
talent between players taken at the bottom of round 1 and the top of round 3.
That’s not to say that there isn’t talent to be had in this crop of
players, with positions like DT boasting considerable depth and with the new
CBA from 2012 in place adding a rookie wage scale, teams aren’t going to be
afraid to pull off a trade if they fall in love with a player.
All of these factors are going to make for an intriguing 3 days and I’m
fully expecting a lot more surprise picks and trades than we’ve had in recent
years.
So, who’s going to go 1st overall? Since new Kansas City head coach Andy
Reid sorted out his QB + WR situation by trading for Alex Smith and re-signing
Dwayne Bowe (as well as franchising OT Branden Albert), I fully expect the
Chiefs to select Texas A&M OT Luke Joeckel with the #1 pick. Central
Michigan OT Eric Fisher has been rising up draft boards and should also be
being considered by the Chiefs but, having played in a stronger conference,
Joeckel is the safer pick here. I think the Chiefs would love to trade out of
this pick, but I can’t see that happening.
Part of the reason for the lack of a trade partner for Kansas City is
that there isn’t an ‘elite’ QB prospect worthy of the #1 pick in this year’s
draft. West Virginia QB Geno Smith is the best-rated QB in this draft and
despite his overall talent/value not warranting it, I don’t see him getting out
of the top 10 due to the number of QB-needy teams picking there. As we’ve all
seen if you don’t have a good QB, you don’t win and over the last couple of
years we’ve seen teams pass on players like Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick
and Andy Dalton - all of whom have taken their respective teams to the
playoffs. The new CBA, as mentioned earlier, also puts a lot less financial
pressure on teams who want to take a QB early on.
There should be a couple more QBs taken at the end of the round with
teams picking in the top 10, but not willing to take one that early, trading
back into the end of the 1st round. Teams like the Patriots who don’t have an
abundance of picks will actively be looking to trade down from that position.
Speaking of trades, I think there will be a lot of them in this draft. I
just spoke about teams at the end of the 1st round looking to trade down and
accumulate more picks, but I also envisage there to be some movement nearer the
top of the round - the Detroit Lions could possibly be looking to trade out of
their position and a CB needy team could jump in ahead of the Cleveland Browns
(who could also be thinking about going CB with their pick) and take the
top-rated CB, Dee Milliner from Alabama.
So, all in all, an intriguing and unpredictable draft to come!
2013 1st Round Order
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Oakland Raiders
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Detroit Lions
- Cleveland Browns
- Arizona Cardinals
- Buffalo Bills
- New York Jets
- Tennessee Titans
- San Diego Chargers
- Miami Dolphins
- New York Jets (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
- Carolina Panthers
- New Orleans Saints
- St. Louis Rams
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Dallas Cowboys
- New York Giants
- Chicago Bears
- Cincinnati Bengals
- St. Louis Rams (from Washington Redskins)
- Minnesota Vikings
- Indianapolis Colts
- Minnesota Vikings (from Seattle Seahawks)
- Green Bay Packers
- Houston Texans
- Denver Broncos
- New England Patriots
- Atlanta Falcons
- San Francisco 49ers
- Baltimore Ravens
Team’s Biggest Needs and Potential Fits
NFC West
- Arizona Cardinals: OT - Eric Fisher (Central Michigan), Lane Johnson (Oklahoma)
- San Francisco 49ers: S - Matt Elam (Florida), John Cyprien (Central Florida)
- Seattle Seahawks: OT - Justin Pugh (Syracuse)
- St.
Louis Rams: WR - Tavon Austin (West Virginia), Cordarrelle Patterson
(Tennessee)
NFC North
- Chicago Bears: LB - Manti Te’o (Notre Dame), Alec Ogletree (Georgia)
- Detroit Lions: DE - Dion Jordan (Oregon), Ezekial Ansah (BYU),
- Green Bay Packers: S - Matt Elam (Florida), Eric Reid (LSU)
- Minnesota
Vikings: WR - Cordarrelle Patterson (Tennessee), Keenan Allen (Cal)
NFC South
- Atlanta Falcons: CB - Desmond Trufant (Washington), Jamar Taylor (Boise State)
- Carolina Panthers: DT - Sheldon Richardson (Missouri), Star Lotulelei (Utah)
- New Orleans Saints: OLB - Jarvis Jones (Georgia), Barkevious Mingo (LSU)
- Tampa
Bay Buccaneers: TE - Zach Ertz (Stanford)
NFC East
- Dallas Cowboys: S - Kenny Vaccaro (Texas)
- New York Giants: LB - Manti Te’o (Notre Dame), Alec Ogletree (Georgia)
- Philadelphia Eagles: OT - Eric Fisher (Central Michigan), Luke Joeckel (Texas A&M)
- Washington Redskins: S - Eric Reid (LSU), Phillip Thomas (Fresno State)
AFC West
- Denver Broncos: DT - Sylvester Williams (North Carolina), John Jenkins (Georgia)
- Kansas City Chiefs: OT - Luke Joeckel (Texas A&M), Eric Fisher (Central Michigan)
- Oakland Raiders: DT - Shariff Floyd (Florida), Star Lotulelei (Utah)
- San
Diego Chargers: G - Chance Warmack (Alabama), Jonathan Cooper (North
Carolina)
AFC North
- Baltimore Ravens: LB - Manti Te’o (Notre Dame), Kevin Minter (LSU)
- Cincinnati Bengals: S - Matt Elam (Florida), Eric Reid (LSU)
- Cleveland Browns: CB - Dee Milliner (Alabama)
- Pittsburgh Steelers: OLB - Jarvis Jones (Georgia)
AFC South
- Houston Texans: WR - Keenan Allen (Cal), DeAndre Hopkins (Clemson)
- Indianapolis Colts: OLB - Bjoern Werner (Florida State), Cornellius Carradine (Florida State)
- Jacksonville Jaguars: DE - Dion Jordan (Oregon)
- Tennessee Titans: G - Chance Warmack (Alabama), Jonathan Cooper (North Carolina)
AFC East
- Buffalo Bills: QB - Geno Smith (West Virginia), Ryan Nassib (Syracuse)
- Miami Dolphins: OT - Lane Johnson (Oklahoma)
- New England Patriots: CB - DJ Hayden (Houston), Desmond Trufant (Washington)
- New York Jets: OLB - Ezekial Ansah (BYU), Barkevious Mingo (LSU)
Sunday, 21 April 2013
Live Trading Review - Spurs v City - 21/04
A bit of a mixed bag for me on this one but a profitable match in the end and a fantastic result which leaves Utd, just one win (tomorrow night at home against Villa hopefully) from the 20th title!
As advised, the Spurs price steamed in nicely before KO, from the 3.15 as it was when I published the preview on Friday to 2.82 before bouncing slightly. The City team was released first and it was the lack of Aguero in the starting team which got the price moving. Then it was nicely supplemented with the news that Bale had made the starting eleven for Spurs and I was left with a nice green book to start the match with.
I opened the session with an FB trade on the O2.5 as there was plenty of money in the market, holding the price up however it still moved a little quicker than I was expecting and so I exited the trade for a tiny loss. Shortly after closing the trade, City opened the scoring through Nasri but the goal did present another opportunity which I took straight away. With City 1-0 up, they were trading at 1.62 and that's the price I took when opening the Comeback (Lay City at 1.62 with 2% liability) strategy. The plan with this strategy is to green up as soon as the losing team equalises or lay the winning team again if they go 2-0 up. Obviously, with the second lay it sometimes makes sense to wait a few minutes or more if necessary, to see if the losing team actually have a chance of coming back into the match or not before risking more of your bank opposing the short priced favourite.
As the game progressed through the first half, City looked comfortably the better team while Spurs lacked any real pace or width in their play. However, playing at home with Bale back in the team and with Spurs is critical need of a win to boost their Champions League hopes, I felt further goals were highly likely. As such I opened Part 1 of TOOT by backing Over 2.5 goals at 1.70 with 5% stake which, was at around the 25th minute of the match. The reason I only opened Part 1 and not both parts of the strategy, is that with one goal already scored I prefer to be more cautious and just aim for a full win from 2 further goals in the game rather than 3 more.
Shortly before half time Nasri had a great chance to score his and City's second goal of game but could only poke his shot wide of the lefthand upright. Unfortunately, that proved to be the closest attempt on goal for sometime and with Spurs taking their time to force their way back into the match, I reached my exit point for TOOT and so closed the trade with a small loss. It turned out to be one of those days, as Spurs scored the equaliser literally moments after I'd closed for a loss! But, that's the way trading goes sometimes and you've got to take the rough with the smooth, then move on regardless.
It wasn't all doom and gloom for me though because the Spurs equaliser did enable me to green up my Comeback trade from early in the first half. After Spurs had got themselves back into the match, further goals were certain as they pushed for the winner they needed and left more space at the back for City. However, it loooked like there was only going to be one winner with Spurs really taking control of the match. This meant a great opportunity for the Endgame strategy, however with the match currently tied at 1-1 and plenty of green to play with in the match odds market, I decided to use this market instead of the Next Goal market and took advantage of the 1.56 Draw price that was available to lay the draw. As expected Spurs made their dominance and momentum pay when they took the lead shortly after, at which point I greened up the Draw lay before they went on to seal the win when Bale scored to make it 3-1 with a delicate chipped finish over Joe Hart.
Great result for Spurs and for me with a tidy profit at the end of the day and although the goals came slightly too late for my TOOT trade, taking the loss when I did was the correct thing to do so, I'm happy with how I traded the game overall. On another day the goals will come earlier and the profit will be even bigger.
I'll be back during the week but probably only taking low lay opportunities as they arise rather than full match trading, I'll explain more about this in a new blog post tomorrow.
Good luck if you're trading.
@DarkDyson
As advised, the Spurs price steamed in nicely before KO, from the 3.15 as it was when I published the preview on Friday to 2.82 before bouncing slightly. The City team was released first and it was the lack of Aguero in the starting team which got the price moving. Then it was nicely supplemented with the news that Bale had made the starting eleven for Spurs and I was left with a nice green book to start the match with.
I opened the session with an FB trade on the O2.5 as there was plenty of money in the market, holding the price up however it still moved a little quicker than I was expecting and so I exited the trade for a tiny loss. Shortly after closing the trade, City opened the scoring through Nasri but the goal did present another opportunity which I took straight away. With City 1-0 up, they were trading at 1.62 and that's the price I took when opening the Comeback (Lay City at 1.62 with 2% liability) strategy. The plan with this strategy is to green up as soon as the losing team equalises or lay the winning team again if they go 2-0 up. Obviously, with the second lay it sometimes makes sense to wait a few minutes or more if necessary, to see if the losing team actually have a chance of coming back into the match or not before risking more of your bank opposing the short priced favourite.
As the game progressed through the first half, City looked comfortably the better team while Spurs lacked any real pace or width in their play. However, playing at home with Bale back in the team and with Spurs is critical need of a win to boost their Champions League hopes, I felt further goals were highly likely. As such I opened Part 1 of TOOT by backing Over 2.5 goals at 1.70 with 5% stake which, was at around the 25th minute of the match. The reason I only opened Part 1 and not both parts of the strategy, is that with one goal already scored I prefer to be more cautious and just aim for a full win from 2 further goals in the game rather than 3 more.
Shortly before half time Nasri had a great chance to score his and City's second goal of game but could only poke his shot wide of the lefthand upright. Unfortunately, that proved to be the closest attempt on goal for sometime and with Spurs taking their time to force their way back into the match, I reached my exit point for TOOT and so closed the trade with a small loss. It turned out to be one of those days, as Spurs scored the equaliser literally moments after I'd closed for a loss! But, that's the way trading goes sometimes and you've got to take the rough with the smooth, then move on regardless.
It wasn't all doom and gloom for me though because the Spurs equaliser did enable me to green up my Comeback trade from early in the first half. After Spurs had got themselves back into the match, further goals were certain as they pushed for the winner they needed and left more space at the back for City. However, it loooked like there was only going to be one winner with Spurs really taking control of the match. This meant a great opportunity for the Endgame strategy, however with the match currently tied at 1-1 and plenty of green to play with in the match odds market, I decided to use this market instead of the Next Goal market and took advantage of the 1.56 Draw price that was available to lay the draw. As expected Spurs made their dominance and momentum pay when they took the lead shortly after, at which point I greened up the Draw lay before they went on to seal the win when Bale scored to make it 3-1 with a delicate chipped finish over Joe Hart.
Great result for Spurs and for me with a tidy profit at the end of the day and although the goals came slightly too late for my TOOT trade, taking the loss when I did was the correct thing to do so, I'm happy with how I traded the game overall. On another day the goals will come earlier and the profit will be even bigger.
I'll be back during the week but probably only taking low lay opportunities as they arise rather than full match trading, I'll explain more about this in a new blog post tomorrow.
Good luck if you're trading.
@DarkDyson
Friday, 19 April 2013
Trading Preview - Spurs V Man City - 21/04 - KO 1.30pm
Part one of a huge Super Sunday serving from Sky is a mouth watering prospect, as Man City visit White Hart Lane to take on Spurs.
The north London club are desperate for points in the race for a Champions League place which, has started slipping away from them after picking up just 4pts from their last 4 matches. Meanwhile, Man City have put the disappointment of failing to defend (its all but mathematically done) their Premier League title behind them, with 4 wins in a row including an FA Cup semi final and the derby at Old Trafford.
Trading Options
Match Odds
Spurs at 3.15
Draw at 3.55
Man City at 2.44
Based on the face value of my tissue price, Spurs are good value but obviously the current price takes into account the fact that Bale, Lennon and Defoe are all serious doubts for the match due to on going injury concerns. However, Man City also have serious injury doubts with both Silva and Aguero in a race to be fit for Sunday. This gives us a potential PMT opportunity because if one (ideally Bale, who is in the squad for Sunday) or more of the Spurs players are named in the starting eleven, their price should shorten a fair amount. The news I've read about Man City is that Silva is unlikely to be fit but Aguero should be fine, obviously if neither make it we'll hopefully get a bigger steam on Spurs. Please note that if Bale is named in the starting eleven, then the Over 2.5 price will also steam in so be prepared to get on both markets before KO.
Spurs record at home this season is W8 D5 L3 with a +7 GD (goal difference), while Man City also have a W8 D5 L3 away with a +6 GD. However, when looking a little deeper into both teams form against similar level opposition the records are markedly different. Spurs record in recent meetings at home against level one (my own personal gradings) opposition reads, W2 D6 L3 with a -6 GD. While Man City's recent games playing away against level two opposition reads, W1 D3 L4 with a -4 GD which are poor, woeful in Man City's case considering they're the reigning champions. However, the head to head record does offer them some comfort having beaten Spurs in all four of the last league meetings with a +7 GD as well. Even playing at home with a full strength team, beating City is potentially a step too far for Spurs on this occasion.
Goal Market Odds
Under 2.5 at 2.04
Over 2.5 at 1.94
Current form shows, 6 of the last 8 Spurs games have gone Over 2.5 goals but only 4 of City's last 8 have done so. For the season overall 50% of Spurs home and just 43% of City's away matches have gone Over 2.5 and recent form against similar opposition also shows that just 6 of 11 Spurs home matches were Over 2.5, while only 4 of 8 Man City away games saw a winning Over 2.5 bet.
These percentages alone are simply not high enough to give any great confidence to anyone wanting to back Over 2.5 goals on Sunday, especially if key attacking players are missing from both teams starting lineups. However, with Spurs in such desperate need of points and City's good recent form it's unlikely this match ends goalless. But, it does make sense to be a little more cautious when the stats aren't as strong as I'd usually like them to be. With this in mind I'll most likely be looking to open just Part 2 of TOOT (Over 1.5 goals) from around 20mins into the match. This will depend on which of the injured players return and how the match shapes up during the first 15-20mins but, I'll update what I'm doing in real time via Twitter as usual.
There could be a good opportunity for an FB trade at the start of this match as liquidity is bound to high and with so much pressure on the match it could be an explosive start which would be enough to hold the price around it's BSP for a few minutes. After the game has settled down into a little bit of a pattern, there might be an opportunity to dip in and out with some TD trades but it won't take that long for the Unders price to reach the 1.70 - 1.60 range and slow right down.
Both teams score a lot of late goals so depending on the scoreline and how the match is going at the time, it might well be worth opening the Endgame strat, especially as Spurs could be throwing the kitchen sink at City by that stage of the match! Finally, as always it's going to be worth considering the Comeback strat on Sunday, these big matches are rarely one sided blowouts and with such low laying prices available on the team currently ahead, the possible rewards are well worth the risk.
Summary
Again, I think City will run out winners in the end this week. Spurs form has not been good and although the return of Gareth Bale (if it happens) would be a huge boost, I find it hard to see them beating City (as much as I'd like them too). I'm undecided on Over 2.5 goals so will wait to see how the game starts but saying that a 2-1 or more likely 1-2 scoreline would in no way be a shock. Either way I'm looking forward to a great day of action on the pitch and in the markets so, I hope the game lives up to its billing.
Cheers and good luck this weekend!
@DarkDyson
The north London club are desperate for points in the race for a Champions League place which, has started slipping away from them after picking up just 4pts from their last 4 matches. Meanwhile, Man City have put the disappointment of failing to defend (its all but mathematically done) their Premier League title behind them, with 4 wins in a row including an FA Cup semi final and the derby at Old Trafford.
Trading Options
Match Odds
Spurs at 3.15
Draw at 3.55
Man City at 2.44
Based on the face value of my tissue price, Spurs are good value but obviously the current price takes into account the fact that Bale, Lennon and Defoe are all serious doubts for the match due to on going injury concerns. However, Man City also have serious injury doubts with both Silva and Aguero in a race to be fit for Sunday. This gives us a potential PMT opportunity because if one (ideally Bale, who is in the squad for Sunday) or more of the Spurs players are named in the starting eleven, their price should shorten a fair amount. The news I've read about Man City is that Silva is unlikely to be fit but Aguero should be fine, obviously if neither make it we'll hopefully get a bigger steam on Spurs. Please note that if Bale is named in the starting eleven, then the Over 2.5 price will also steam in so be prepared to get on both markets before KO.
Spurs record at home this season is W8 D5 L3 with a +7 GD (goal difference), while Man City also have a W8 D5 L3 away with a +6 GD. However, when looking a little deeper into both teams form against similar level opposition the records are markedly different. Spurs record in recent meetings at home against level one (my own personal gradings) opposition reads, W2 D6 L3 with a -6 GD. While Man City's recent games playing away against level two opposition reads, W1 D3 L4 with a -4 GD which are poor, woeful in Man City's case considering they're the reigning champions. However, the head to head record does offer them some comfort having beaten Spurs in all four of the last league meetings with a +7 GD as well. Even playing at home with a full strength team, beating City is potentially a step too far for Spurs on this occasion.
Goal Market Odds
Under 2.5 at 2.04
Over 2.5 at 1.94
Current form shows, 6 of the last 8 Spurs games have gone Over 2.5 goals but only 4 of City's last 8 have done so. For the season overall 50% of Spurs home and just 43% of City's away matches have gone Over 2.5 and recent form against similar opposition also shows that just 6 of 11 Spurs home matches were Over 2.5, while only 4 of 8 Man City away games saw a winning Over 2.5 bet.
These percentages alone are simply not high enough to give any great confidence to anyone wanting to back Over 2.5 goals on Sunday, especially if key attacking players are missing from both teams starting lineups. However, with Spurs in such desperate need of points and City's good recent form it's unlikely this match ends goalless. But, it does make sense to be a little more cautious when the stats aren't as strong as I'd usually like them to be. With this in mind I'll most likely be looking to open just Part 2 of TOOT (Over 1.5 goals) from around 20mins into the match. This will depend on which of the injured players return and how the match shapes up during the first 15-20mins but, I'll update what I'm doing in real time via Twitter as usual.
There could be a good opportunity for an FB trade at the start of this match as liquidity is bound to high and with so much pressure on the match it could be an explosive start which would be enough to hold the price around it's BSP for a few minutes. After the game has settled down into a little bit of a pattern, there might be an opportunity to dip in and out with some TD trades but it won't take that long for the Unders price to reach the 1.70 - 1.60 range and slow right down.
Both teams score a lot of late goals so depending on the scoreline and how the match is going at the time, it might well be worth opening the Endgame strat, especially as Spurs could be throwing the kitchen sink at City by that stage of the match! Finally, as always it's going to be worth considering the Comeback strat on Sunday, these big matches are rarely one sided blowouts and with such low laying prices available on the team currently ahead, the possible rewards are well worth the risk.
Summary
Again, I think City will run out winners in the end this week. Spurs form has not been good and although the return of Gareth Bale (if it happens) would be a huge boost, I find it hard to see them beating City (as much as I'd like them too). I'm undecided on Over 2.5 goals so will wait to see how the game starts but saying that a 2-1 or more likely 1-2 scoreline would in no way be a shock. Either way I'm looking forward to a great day of action on the pitch and in the markets so, I hope the game lives up to its billing.
Cheers and good luck this weekend!
@DarkDyson
Tuesday, 16 April 2013
Time Decay Trading
Time decay (TD) is simply a strategy which takes advantage of the natural change (decay) in price over time.
For example the Under 2.5 goals price of a match might start at 2.10 and with every passing minute of the game, the possibility of the match ending with under 2.5 goals is increasing because there's less time for the 3 goals necessary to close the market, to be scored in. As such the price will reduce (decay) continuously throughout the match until the market closes, either due to the game ending with under 2.5 goals or because there's been 3 goals scored.
TD trading can essentially be done in any market but the Under/Over markets are the most common and liquid ones to trade. However correct score, match odds and various half time markets, all offer good opportunities to profit from TD trading as well. Obviously, if a goal is scored while you're open with a TD trade you'll have to take a loss (there are ways to reduce the loss, explained later) and this is why a lot of novice traders find TD trading difficult and/or more stressful than other strategies.
Football is about scoring goals and we naturally expect most games to have one, two or more goals scored during 90mins. So, using TD which is specifically designed to take advantage of price movement when there are no goals doesn't seem quite right, it almost feels unnatural to be hoping the match stays at 0-0 or whatever it's present score. This leads to a nervousness about using TD, a goal could be scored at any moment which would result in a losing trade and then the inevitable questioning begins. "Why was I trying a TD trade in this game? I knew there would be goals!" or "Why do I always get caught by goals when in TD!" but, it'll help to remember some basic facts such as, in the Premier League so far this season the average goals per game is 2.81. This means that on average a goal is scored roughly every 32mins which, is obviously a long time in a football match and helps to put in perspective how unlikely it is to get caught while doing TD.
The risk of getting caught can also be reducded in a number of other ways such as using trading software. The ladder layout, moving averages and weight of money graphs available in Bet Angel show exactly how much money's in the market, this enables us to see when the price slows and/or stops moving. This is not the right time to be open in TD and in fact if you're open with TD when the price slows or stops (resistance point), it can be very profitable to switch to the other side of the market just in case there's a goal but this is a more advanced technique. As a beginner, it makes sense to simply green up the TD trade when the price slows/stops moving and then reopen it when the price starts moving again. Another simple way of avoiding getting caught by a goal is to green up when there's a dangerous/direct free kick close to the box which, could easily result in a shot on goal. Although, I don't tend to green up when there's a corner, surprisingly few goals are scored from corners but there's nothing wrong in closing the TD at corners if you're not comfortable with staying open.
With TD we're looking to take advantage of short bursts of quick price movements, to take the maximum amount of profit (ticks) possible but without spending more than a few minutes open in the markets. This approach to TD also helps avoid getting caught by a goal, obviously the less time spent open in TD, the less likely you are to get by a goal. There are some periods in a match when the price in the Under/Over market will move quicker than others and this is where TD is its most effective.
For example, if a match starts slowly with niether team committing many players forward in attacking positions and as such there's very little if any, goalmouth action in the opening 10-15mins. The price of Under 2.5 goals will move quickly down to around the 1.70 or even 1.60 range, however it will slow significantly at this point because although the match has started slowly, there's obviously still a lot of time left for goals to be scored. Another period in a match where the Unders price moves quickly is shortly after a goal which not only provides an opportunity for TD but also to reduce a loss if the goal came while already open in a TD trade. Either simply leave the trade on Unders open after the goal and benefit from the rapid price drop in the following minutes and then close the trade (I would only stay open a maximum of 3-5mins when doing this) which will reduce the loss. The other option is to immediately close the TD trade for a loss but open another TD trade in the next Under/Over market up. So, if you were caught while in TD on Under 2.5, you would red that market and open TD on Under 3.5, again taking advantage of the quick drop in price to make some profit to balance the original loss. My preference is the second option but either way, if another goal goes in quickly after the first the loss is at least doubled.
TD in the Under/Over markets is generally done in the market which needs two or three goals to close it because if a goal does catch you out, it won't result in a full loss. For example, if open in TD on Under 2.5 from the start of a match a goal will usually result in around a 40% loss of stake. There are occasions when TD can be traded in markets which would close if one goal were scored and they can be very profitable but stakes must be reduced accordingly. Other times which prices move quickly are obviously at the end of the first half and near the end of full time, it's worth studying graphs (even the standard ones on Betfair) while a match is on, to get an idea of when and by how much prices decay over time.
Also, don't forget that while one price is going down, the other must be going up and there are occasions when you would lay a price and look to back it a few minutes later at a significantly higher price, after a quick drift. This often happens in the Half Time market, if the favourite has got off to a particularly slow start and the underdog has created a few good goal scoring opportunities. The major benefit of this type of trade is obviously, if the underdog should score during this period of dominating the game, the favourites price will potentially (depending on how big a fav they were and how long is left in the match) fly up much higher and enable you to close the trade for a much bigger profit than expected.
I could go on for ages with this post but it's already too long so, I'll stop there and go in more detail about specific TD trading I use at a later date. I hope some find it interesting/useful and as usual please feel free to comment and/or get in touch.
Good luck with your trading,
@DarkDyson
For example the Under 2.5 goals price of a match might start at 2.10 and with every passing minute of the game, the possibility of the match ending with under 2.5 goals is increasing because there's less time for the 3 goals necessary to close the market, to be scored in. As such the price will reduce (decay) continuously throughout the match until the market closes, either due to the game ending with under 2.5 goals or because there's been 3 goals scored.
TD trading can essentially be done in any market but the Under/Over markets are the most common and liquid ones to trade. However correct score, match odds and various half time markets, all offer good opportunities to profit from TD trading as well. Obviously, if a goal is scored while you're open with a TD trade you'll have to take a loss (there are ways to reduce the loss, explained later) and this is why a lot of novice traders find TD trading difficult and/or more stressful than other strategies.
Football is about scoring goals and we naturally expect most games to have one, two or more goals scored during 90mins. So, using TD which is specifically designed to take advantage of price movement when there are no goals doesn't seem quite right, it almost feels unnatural to be hoping the match stays at 0-0 or whatever it's present score. This leads to a nervousness about using TD, a goal could be scored at any moment which would result in a losing trade and then the inevitable questioning begins. "Why was I trying a TD trade in this game? I knew there would be goals!" or "Why do I always get caught by goals when in TD!" but, it'll help to remember some basic facts such as, in the Premier League so far this season the average goals per game is 2.81. This means that on average a goal is scored roughly every 32mins which, is obviously a long time in a football match and helps to put in perspective how unlikely it is to get caught while doing TD.
The risk of getting caught can also be reducded in a number of other ways such as using trading software. The ladder layout, moving averages and weight of money graphs available in Bet Angel show exactly how much money's in the market, this enables us to see when the price slows and/or stops moving. This is not the right time to be open in TD and in fact if you're open with TD when the price slows or stops (resistance point), it can be very profitable to switch to the other side of the market just in case there's a goal but this is a more advanced technique. As a beginner, it makes sense to simply green up the TD trade when the price slows/stops moving and then reopen it when the price starts moving again. Another simple way of avoiding getting caught by a goal is to green up when there's a dangerous/direct free kick close to the box which, could easily result in a shot on goal. Although, I don't tend to green up when there's a corner, surprisingly few goals are scored from corners but there's nothing wrong in closing the TD at corners if you're not comfortable with staying open.
With TD we're looking to take advantage of short bursts of quick price movements, to take the maximum amount of profit (ticks) possible but without spending more than a few minutes open in the markets. This approach to TD also helps avoid getting caught by a goal, obviously the less time spent open in TD, the less likely you are to get by a goal. There are some periods in a match when the price in the Under/Over market will move quicker than others and this is where TD is its most effective.
For example, if a match starts slowly with niether team committing many players forward in attacking positions and as such there's very little if any, goalmouth action in the opening 10-15mins. The price of Under 2.5 goals will move quickly down to around the 1.70 or even 1.60 range, however it will slow significantly at this point because although the match has started slowly, there's obviously still a lot of time left for goals to be scored. Another period in a match where the Unders price moves quickly is shortly after a goal which not only provides an opportunity for TD but also to reduce a loss if the goal came while already open in a TD trade. Either simply leave the trade on Unders open after the goal and benefit from the rapid price drop in the following minutes and then close the trade (I would only stay open a maximum of 3-5mins when doing this) which will reduce the loss. The other option is to immediately close the TD trade for a loss but open another TD trade in the next Under/Over market up. So, if you were caught while in TD on Under 2.5, you would red that market and open TD on Under 3.5, again taking advantage of the quick drop in price to make some profit to balance the original loss. My preference is the second option but either way, if another goal goes in quickly after the first the loss is at least doubled.
TD in the Under/Over markets is generally done in the market which needs two or three goals to close it because if a goal does catch you out, it won't result in a full loss. For example, if open in TD on Under 2.5 from the start of a match a goal will usually result in around a 40% loss of stake. There are occasions when TD can be traded in markets which would close if one goal were scored and they can be very profitable but stakes must be reduced accordingly. Other times which prices move quickly are obviously at the end of the first half and near the end of full time, it's worth studying graphs (even the standard ones on Betfair) while a match is on, to get an idea of when and by how much prices decay over time.
Also, don't forget that while one price is going down, the other must be going up and there are occasions when you would lay a price and look to back it a few minutes later at a significantly higher price, after a quick drift. This often happens in the Half Time market, if the favourite has got off to a particularly slow start and the underdog has created a few good goal scoring opportunities. The major benefit of this type of trade is obviously, if the underdog should score during this period of dominating the game, the favourites price will potentially (depending on how big a fav they were and how long is left in the match) fly up much higher and enable you to close the trade for a much bigger profit than expected.
I could go on for ages with this post but it's already too long so, I'll stop there and go in more detail about specific TD trading I use at a later date. I hope some find it interesting/useful and as usual please feel free to comment and/or get in touch.
Good luck with your trading,
@DarkDyson
Sunday, 14 April 2013
Live Trading Review - Chelsea V City - 14/04/13
Couldn't really have asked for a better start to this match with Manchester City drifting a long way before KO, as Pantilimon started in goal as mentioned in the preview. Unfortunately, I was a little late getting in the market & early getting out but was still able to grab 2.32 to 2.46 which I was very pleased with however, the City drift just kept on going and went as high as 2.60! I don't usually get out until shortly before KO but the price seemed like it was about to top out and I was wary of a bounce back (lol couldn't have got that more wrong!) Certainly made the right call in predicting the drift and any green is good so, notes taken and will learn from it next time out.
After a lively opening 10-15mins from City, they would even have scored if not for a brilliant tip around the post save from Cech. I decided to open Part 1 of TOOT at 2.22 and after City dominated the first 20mins, Chelsea started to get into the game. City actually had to clear one off the line as reserve keeper, Pantilimon came for but, got nowhere near to a Chelsea free kick. Chelsea showing some promise in attack convinced me to open Part 2 of TOOT at 1.70, now I just needed a couple of goals!
Goal!!!! On 35mins City took the lead through Nasri and usually this would have been the perfect time for a goal when using TOOT. But, I'd literally just opened a Time Decay (known as TD, explanation post coming soon) trade to reduce the liability on Part 2 so, unfortunately only my Part 1 position benefitted from it. However, that's exactly the reason why I trade this strategy. Once open on both parts, it still has the potential to return a profit, even when a goal comes while I'm open in a TD trade. In all honesty, I'd started TD a little earlier than usual as the price was moving quite quickly.
City, could and should have gone in 2-0 up at the break but a poor cross from Milner and and even worse finish from Kompany saw the chance go to waste. The first half goal left me in a position to make a profit on the match but if Chelsea start strongly in the 2nd half, I'd certainly look to open the Comeback strategy.
Not my day today as I'm caught in TD again, by an early goal at the start of the 2nd half from Aguero which puts City 2-0 up. So, looking at break even with TOOT which is never a bad thing to be honest but obviously frustrating, after having made the right call to use the strategy in the first place. With City 2-0 up and trading at 1.10 it made sense to use some of my PMT profit to open the Comeback strategy, in the hope Chelsea don't go down without a fight and manage to score the 3rd goal of the game.
Just after bringin on Torres for Mikel, Demba Ba grabs a goal back for Chelsea and I'm able to green up Comeback at 1.37 boosting the profit on Match Odds market nicely. Game very much on now and definite potential for Engame as Chelsea are sure to push for an equaliser and leave gaps at the back for City to exploit.
No joy with Endgame this time as City ran out 2-1 winners to qualify for the FA Cup final. I was a little greedy/unlucky to get caught twice while on TD but still made a nice profit from PMT and Comeback so, can't complain with that but will learn from the experience. I called the match pretty much spot on in the preview and should really have taken BTTS inplay as well but again happy that the research proved to be correct.
Back soon with more live trading and general posts, in the meantime good luck if you're in the markets.
@DarkDyson
After a lively opening 10-15mins from City, they would even have scored if not for a brilliant tip around the post save from Cech. I decided to open Part 1 of TOOT at 2.22 and after City dominated the first 20mins, Chelsea started to get into the game. City actually had to clear one off the line as reserve keeper, Pantilimon came for but, got nowhere near to a Chelsea free kick. Chelsea showing some promise in attack convinced me to open Part 2 of TOOT at 1.70, now I just needed a couple of goals!
Goal!!!! On 35mins City took the lead through Nasri and usually this would have been the perfect time for a goal when using TOOT. But, I'd literally just opened a Time Decay (known as TD, explanation post coming soon) trade to reduce the liability on Part 2 so, unfortunately only my Part 1 position benefitted from it. However, that's exactly the reason why I trade this strategy. Once open on both parts, it still has the potential to return a profit, even when a goal comes while I'm open in a TD trade. In all honesty, I'd started TD a little earlier than usual as the price was moving quite quickly.
City, could and should have gone in 2-0 up at the break but a poor cross from Milner and and even worse finish from Kompany saw the chance go to waste. The first half goal left me in a position to make a profit on the match but if Chelsea start strongly in the 2nd half, I'd certainly look to open the Comeback strategy.
Not my day today as I'm caught in TD again, by an early goal at the start of the 2nd half from Aguero which puts City 2-0 up. So, looking at break even with TOOT which is never a bad thing to be honest but obviously frustrating, after having made the right call to use the strategy in the first place. With City 2-0 up and trading at 1.10 it made sense to use some of my PMT profit to open the Comeback strategy, in the hope Chelsea don't go down without a fight and manage to score the 3rd goal of the game.
Just after bringin on Torres for Mikel, Demba Ba grabs a goal back for Chelsea and I'm able to green up Comeback at 1.37 boosting the profit on Match Odds market nicely. Game very much on now and definite potential for Engame as Chelsea are sure to push for an equaliser and leave gaps at the back for City to exploit.
No joy with Endgame this time as City ran out 2-1 winners to qualify for the FA Cup final. I was a little greedy/unlucky to get caught twice while on TD but still made a nice profit from PMT and Comeback so, can't complain with that but will learn from the experience. I called the match pretty much spot on in the preview and should really have taken BTTS inplay as well but again happy that the research proved to be correct.
Back soon with more live trading and general posts, in the meantime good luck if you're in the markets.
@DarkDyson
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