The third part of my early season trades posts, looks at the English Premier League relegation market. Because of the large number of clubs that need to be covered in this post, I'll probably split it into a few parts, hence the P3-A naming convention.
The first part of this post will focus on the market leaders in the relegation race, based on current Betfair prices (shown below) while, the following parts obviously cover the remainder. As with all my early season trades, I'm only looking for which of the teams prices have the greatest potential to move, either up or down during the first six games of the season. Initially, this is based upon the relative strength or weakness of each teams schedule and any impact that new signings may have on the percieved strength of their teams. Each week, as the season progresses I'll be reviewing my positions and reasoning for each trade, making adjustments as and when necessary.
Relegation Prices -
Palace @1.57
Hull @1.69
Cardiff @2.98
As usual the three newly promoted teams are currently the favourites to be relegated but as you can see, Cardiff are clearly considered to have the best chance of staying up while both Palace & Hull are odds on to return to the Championship after just one season at the top table. However, there's often one of the promoted teams that gets off to a flying start to the season and more often than not, a large part of the reason they start well is down to the relatively easy games they are faced with. West Ham's record after six games last season read W3 D2 L1 which is just about as good as it gets for newly promoted team. Take a look at the teams they played in the opening six games of last season -
Villa (H), Swansea (A), Fulham (H), Norwich (A), Sunderland (H), QPR (A)
Swansea were the only team to beat the Hammers in these first six matches and despite an extended run of poor form around the turn of the year, they were never in any danger of being relegated and actually managed to finish 10th. A good start to the season can make all the difference to a side that are expected to be involved in a relegation battle because it gives them valuable points on the board and the an additional boost of confidence, that they can compete at this level. Later in the season when things aren't going so well, they're able to draw confidence from those early games, belief that they've won at this level before and can do so again.
Crystal Palace are the favourites to make a swift return to the Championship but Ian Holloway came very close to keeping Blackpool in the Premier League recently and that experience will certainly help them in what seems certain to be a long and hard battle against relegation. The battle starts with a tough looking first six games -
Palace - Spurs (H), Stoke (A), Sunderland (H), Utd (A), Swansea (H), Southampton (A)
To be honest, anything from 4 to 6pts would be a decent start with those fixtures for the Championship play off winners. But I'm sure they'll make Selhurst Park a tough place to go, last season they only lost twice at home mainly due to the league high 52 goals they scored. Obviously, they won't be able to repeat those figures in the Premier League but they could surprise a few teams if they're underestimated.
Hull - Chelsea (A), Norwich (H), Man City (A), Cardiff (H), Newcastle (A), West Ham (H)
This set of fixtures for Hull couldn't really get much worse and again if they can get anything around 4 to 6pts from them, they have to be reasonably happy. Bruce has been very active in the transfer window and has got in some of his old favourites, Figueroa and Elmohamady amongst them which, should definitely help in the anticipated relegation battle. However, with this set of opening fixures I'm tempted to try a little back to lay trade on them as I wouldn't be surprised if they still had no points after the first three games.
Finally, the Championship champions from last season, Cardiff. Who, unlike Hull haven't been able to complete much transfer business at all so far and subsequently look like they're going to have to rely on much of last seasons squad to avoid relegation this season. This isn't a tactic (accidental or not) which I believe is going to do them any good at all and neither are their opening six fixtures.
Cardiff - West Ham (A), Man City (H), Everton (H), Hull (A), Spurs (H), Fulham (A)
Newly promoted sides often talk about winning their home games as being key to survival but with this set of home games, Cardiff are in for a really tough introduction to life at the top table of English (& Welsh) football. The one saving grace is maybe that both City and Everton have new managers this season so playing them early could be the best time to play them, as they won't have worked out their best team or tactics at such an early stage in the season. Even so, once again 4 to 6pts would be a decent return from this start to their Premier League campaign.
Summary -
At the moment it's not looking good for the newcomers but then again, it never really does at the start of the season. However, usually at least one of the promoted sides gets off to a good start and it's not always the team you might expect it to be. The first three games in particular have been much kinder to Palace than both Hull or Cardiff and with their price already at 1.57 there's not really that much further for it to go. With a London derby against Spurs at home on the opening day, it could be Palace who get off to a flyer and if not, as mentioned the price can't go that far anyway. So, crazy as it sounds I'm probably going to have a little lay to back trade on Palace from the start.
I'll also keep a close eye on which of the other two look most likely to have a good/bad start, after the first couple of games and potentially jump on if an opportunity arises. Cardiff could be a back to lay but we'll see. As usual keep an eye on Twitter for further updates during the first few weeks of the season.
Good luck,
@DarkDyson
Tuesday, 30 July 2013
Monday, 29 July 2013
In Play Trading Sheet
Every successful trader you ever meet will tell you that recording and reviewing your trading sessions is vital in your journey to becoming a long term profitable trader. But, what's the best way to record your trading sessions?
It needs to be quick and easy to manage but cover all the key points during your session, while also being easy to review at a later date. Obviously there are lots of video and audio, screen grab style software/applications out there you could use but, you need to record the whole 90mins of a match and reviewing it all afterwards is simply too time consuming. Couple this with the fact that I'm a bit of a technophobe and I needed a much simpler and more efficient way of recording my trading sessions.
Which is why I decided to write all the key pieces of information by hand, in my trading diary but I needed a format which set out the match in an easy to use structure (see screen shot below). This trading sheet is always evolving and I have something similar for my pre match stats research which focuses on the strategies I use but I'll write another post about that later.
As you can see the top section of the sheet covers the Match Odds and Over/Under prices from, my tissue prices to 1st price I record (usually Thursday before weekend fixtures), to KO and then at 15min intervals throughout the match in question. Although, I also use this section to record the prices when goals are scored and if any red cards are shown. The Over/Under price is the 2.5 goals price to start with and then increasing goal markets as the goals go in.
The next section is the PMT section where I record my Pre Match Trade results, simply who/what I backed/layed and the close price, along with the P/L of the trade. I'll also include a short note on my reasons for opening and closing the trade.
The next section is the main inplay which breaks the game down into 15min chunks which make it easier to use and digest at a later date. As you can see above in the fictitious example I opened a Time Decay (TD) trade at 1.98 and closed it at 1.72. Again I would add a short note on why I did the trade, in the notes section. This would carry on throughout the match with every trade I tried.
Finally, the review section is where I add some more detailed notes after the match on how I felt I traded the game, good points, bad points, warts and all. I then come back to this section the following day and do another review of how I traded, just to make sure I've been as objective as possible with my performance. Directly after a game finishes its easier to paper over the cracks than admit I traded poorly so, coming back a day later helps give me a more reasonable perspective on how the session went.
Just a short post today but please let me know if you have any questions or thoughts on my trading sheet, maybe you do something completely different to this and if so, I'd like to hear about it as its always useful to see what other options there are. If you don't record & review your sessions, then I strongly suggest you do and feel free to start by copying my sheet if you want and adapt it to suit your own needs.
Cheers and good luck.
@DarkDyson
It needs to be quick and easy to manage but cover all the key points during your session, while also being easy to review at a later date. Obviously there are lots of video and audio, screen grab style software/applications out there you could use but, you need to record the whole 90mins of a match and reviewing it all afterwards is simply too time consuming. Couple this with the fact that I'm a bit of a technophobe and I needed a much simpler and more efficient way of recording my trading sessions.
Which is why I decided to write all the key pieces of information by hand, in my trading diary but I needed a format which set out the match in an easy to use structure (see screen shot below). This trading sheet is always evolving and I have something similar for my pre match stats research which focuses on the strategies I use but I'll write another post about that later.
As you can see the top section of the sheet covers the Match Odds and Over/Under prices from, my tissue prices to 1st price I record (usually Thursday before weekend fixtures), to KO and then at 15min intervals throughout the match in question. Although, I also use this section to record the prices when goals are scored and if any red cards are shown. The Over/Under price is the 2.5 goals price to start with and then increasing goal markets as the goals go in.
The next section is the PMT section where I record my Pre Match Trade results, simply who/what I backed/layed and the close price, along with the P/L of the trade. I'll also include a short note on my reasons for opening and closing the trade.
The next section is the main inplay which breaks the game down into 15min chunks which make it easier to use and digest at a later date. As you can see above in the fictitious example I opened a Time Decay (TD) trade at 1.98 and closed it at 1.72. Again I would add a short note on why I did the trade, in the notes section. This would carry on throughout the match with every trade I tried.
Finally, the review section is where I add some more detailed notes after the match on how I felt I traded the game, good points, bad points, warts and all. I then come back to this section the following day and do another review of how I traded, just to make sure I've been as objective as possible with my performance. Directly after a game finishes its easier to paper over the cracks than admit I traded poorly so, coming back a day later helps give me a more reasonable perspective on how the session went.
Just a short post today but please let me know if you have any questions or thoughts on my trading sheet, maybe you do something completely different to this and if so, I'd like to hear about it as its always useful to see what other options there are. If you don't record & review your sessions, then I strongly suggest you do and feel free to start by copying my sheet if you want and adapt it to suit your own needs.
Cheers and good luck.
@DarkDyson
Wednesday, 10 July 2013
EPL - Early Season Trades (P2)
Before I get stuck into part two, just a quick clarification that these early season trades are all going to be Back to Lay or Lay to Back trades which, I will probably jump in and out of over 4 to 6 week periods as the season progresses. This is why I won't be stipulating any specific exit prices at this stage. I fully expect to back and lay multiple teams, multiple times, hopefully in perfect harmony with their form which, will result in a healthy greenbook by seasons end (at least that's the plan lol).
Now, for part two which logically moves down from the top three and onto the battle for Champions League qualification. I can appreciate that some Arsenal and even a few Spurs fans I know, would try to argue that their teams will be involved at the business end of the title race this season. I do think this could be one of the most open title races ever and potentially with more teams involved than usual but realistically, it's going to take a small miracle for either North London club to get really close to winning the Premier League this coming season. The prices of these second tier teams in the outright Premier League Winner market reflect this quite clearly -
Arsenal at 11.5
Spurs at 36
Liverpool at 36
Everton at 560
One thing to note here is that Spurs being priced the same as Liverpool, just doesn't look right to me. Liverpool finished 11pts behind Spurs and could well lose their best player with Suarez today again clarifying his desire to leave Merseyside. While Spurs have already signed Paulinho and will clearly be splashing more cash before the window shuts. It also seems that Bale is unlikley to leave until next summer. Their first six matches of the season (shown below) look very winnable and so that price could steam in, especially if they win the North London derby.
Spurs - Palace (A), Swansea (H), Arsenal (A), Norwich (H), Cardiff (A), Chelsea (H)
Personally, I'm not sure I'll be on them in the outright but I'll be keeping an eye on the first couple of games to see how they've started. Similarly, Arsenal although not as big a price like Spurs have an even easier start (see below) to the season and if Wenger brings in the right players, who then hit the ground running, their price of 11.5 will quickly vanish. Another to keep an eye on during the first couple of games.
Arsenal - Villa (H), Fulham (A), Spurs (H), Sunderland (A), Stoke (H), Swansea (A)
The market i'm actually going to focus on for these teams is, the Top Four finish market which can provide some great trading opportunities throughout the season. Current prices for these teams to finish in the top four are as follows -
Arsenal at 1.6
Spurs at 2.78
Liverpool at 3.8
Everton at 23
As you can see from the fixtures above both Arsenal and Spurs will be expecting to win at least four of their opening six matches, but with the derby coming so early in the season it could prove vital to both teams as a marker for the first half of their seasons. However, Arsenal have used derby day defeats to fuel a great run of form in the previous two seasons so, we'll have to wait and see how it effects each side in the following weeks. What is clear is that if they both arrive at the derby undefeated as expected, the winner at the Emirates should see their price for a top four finish come in nicely.
Meanwhile, Liverpool are only slightly further back at 3.8 which I believe is way to short. Although, they have seemingly have a good chance of overtaking local rivals Everton and finishing 6th next season, their squad is some way behind both Arsenal and Spurs in my opinion. Once Suarez forces his way out of Anfield, they'll be even further behind. But, their opening fixtures have been kind -
Liverpool - Stoke (H), Villa (A), United (H), Swansea (A), Southampton (H), Sunderland (A)
Apart from playing the champions at home in week three, these first six games look eminently winnable on paper and thus you could easily think that five wins from six is well within their reach. Sadly for Liverpool, these are just the sort of games they inexplicably drop points in, Southampton, Stoke and Villa all beat Liverpool last season. With that and the short price in mind, along with my confidence in both Arsenal and Spurs, I simply can't consider them as a back to lay option at the moment.
Finally, onto Everton who start the season without David Moyes for the first time in 11 years. I think the main reason for the lack of belief in Everton obviously has plenty to do with their new manager Martinez, the fact he relegated Wigan and his desire to bring in as many Wigan players as possible. Also, there's plenty of interest in Fellaini and Baines from Champions League clubs, if they did leave it would be a big blow to their chances. However, their opening fixtures are also pretty soft, except for one -
Everton - Norwich (A), WBA (H), Cardiff (A), Chelsea (H), West Ham (A), Newcastle (H)
Despite criticizing Martinez's strategy of cherry picking his old Wigan players to join him at Everton, I actually think that Kone could be a real star for them this season. He proved he can score goals in the Premier League last season and even if Fellaini and Baines leave in the summer, there's still Pienaar, Osman, Mirallas and others to create chances for him. There's definietly potential for Everton to get off to a strong start and their price of 23 certinaly looks attractive, although it would take at least two of the other teams to have a slow start along with Everton starting well for the price to shorten a decent amount, this early in the season.
Summary -
I like the price of Spurs in the outright market, as it could contract nicely if they can start well by beating at least one of Arsenal or Chelsea. But I'm happy to wait for now and see who they're able to bring in up front, because Adebayor and Defoe on their own simply isn't good or consistent enough for their lofty ambitions. I also like them in the top four market but obviously, I'm holding off there too for now.
Arsenal's prices are both a little skinny for my liking, although I do feel there's a lot of potential for a strong start, if the squad shapes up and the likes of Diaby & Wilshire are fully fit. If not, I might well be laying them.
Other than that, the only other thing which interests me is a potential back to lay of Everton at 23 in the top four finish market but again, transfers are going to play a key role here. Obviously, transfer will effect prices and I might not be able to back at these prices closer to the start of season but I prefer to have as much info as possible before opening a position so I'm happy to lose a few ticks for a good cause.
P3 will be coming soon so keep and eye out for that soon, comments and questions always welcome.
@DarkDyson
Now, for part two which logically moves down from the top three and onto the battle for Champions League qualification. I can appreciate that some Arsenal and even a few Spurs fans I know, would try to argue that their teams will be involved at the business end of the title race this season. I do think this could be one of the most open title races ever and potentially with more teams involved than usual but realistically, it's going to take a small miracle for either North London club to get really close to winning the Premier League this coming season. The prices of these second tier teams in the outright Premier League Winner market reflect this quite clearly -
Arsenal at 11.5
Spurs at 36
Liverpool at 36
Everton at 560
One thing to note here is that Spurs being priced the same as Liverpool, just doesn't look right to me. Liverpool finished 11pts behind Spurs and could well lose their best player with Suarez today again clarifying his desire to leave Merseyside. While Spurs have already signed Paulinho and will clearly be splashing more cash before the window shuts. It also seems that Bale is unlikley to leave until next summer. Their first six matches of the season (shown below) look very winnable and so that price could steam in, especially if they win the North London derby.
Spurs - Palace (A), Swansea (H), Arsenal (A), Norwich (H), Cardiff (A), Chelsea (H)
Personally, I'm not sure I'll be on them in the outright but I'll be keeping an eye on the first couple of games to see how they've started. Similarly, Arsenal although not as big a price like Spurs have an even easier start (see below) to the season and if Wenger brings in the right players, who then hit the ground running, their price of 11.5 will quickly vanish. Another to keep an eye on during the first couple of games.
Arsenal - Villa (H), Fulham (A), Spurs (H), Sunderland (A), Stoke (H), Swansea (A)
The market i'm actually going to focus on for these teams is, the Top Four finish market which can provide some great trading opportunities throughout the season. Current prices for these teams to finish in the top four are as follows -
Arsenal at 1.6
Spurs at 2.78
Liverpool at 3.8
Everton at 23
As you can see from the fixtures above both Arsenal and Spurs will be expecting to win at least four of their opening six matches, but with the derby coming so early in the season it could prove vital to both teams as a marker for the first half of their seasons. However, Arsenal have used derby day defeats to fuel a great run of form in the previous two seasons so, we'll have to wait and see how it effects each side in the following weeks. What is clear is that if they both arrive at the derby undefeated as expected, the winner at the Emirates should see their price for a top four finish come in nicely.
Meanwhile, Liverpool are only slightly further back at 3.8 which I believe is way to short. Although, they have seemingly have a good chance of overtaking local rivals Everton and finishing 6th next season, their squad is some way behind both Arsenal and Spurs in my opinion. Once Suarez forces his way out of Anfield, they'll be even further behind. But, their opening fixtures have been kind -
Liverpool - Stoke (H), Villa (A), United (H), Swansea (A), Southampton (H), Sunderland (A)
Apart from playing the champions at home in week three, these first six games look eminently winnable on paper and thus you could easily think that five wins from six is well within their reach. Sadly for Liverpool, these are just the sort of games they inexplicably drop points in, Southampton, Stoke and Villa all beat Liverpool last season. With that and the short price in mind, along with my confidence in both Arsenal and Spurs, I simply can't consider them as a back to lay option at the moment.
Finally, onto Everton who start the season without David Moyes for the first time in 11 years. I think the main reason for the lack of belief in Everton obviously has plenty to do with their new manager Martinez, the fact he relegated Wigan and his desire to bring in as many Wigan players as possible. Also, there's plenty of interest in Fellaini and Baines from Champions League clubs, if they did leave it would be a big blow to their chances. However, their opening fixtures are also pretty soft, except for one -
Everton - Norwich (A), WBA (H), Cardiff (A), Chelsea (H), West Ham (A), Newcastle (H)
Despite criticizing Martinez's strategy of cherry picking his old Wigan players to join him at Everton, I actually think that Kone could be a real star for them this season. He proved he can score goals in the Premier League last season and even if Fellaini and Baines leave in the summer, there's still Pienaar, Osman, Mirallas and others to create chances for him. There's definietly potential for Everton to get off to a strong start and their price of 23 certinaly looks attractive, although it would take at least two of the other teams to have a slow start along with Everton starting well for the price to shorten a decent amount, this early in the season.
Summary -
I like the price of Spurs in the outright market, as it could contract nicely if they can start well by beating at least one of Arsenal or Chelsea. But I'm happy to wait for now and see who they're able to bring in up front, because Adebayor and Defoe on their own simply isn't good or consistent enough for their lofty ambitions. I also like them in the top four market but obviously, I'm holding off there too for now.
Arsenal's prices are both a little skinny for my liking, although I do feel there's a lot of potential for a strong start, if the squad shapes up and the likes of Diaby & Wilshire are fully fit. If not, I might well be laying them.
Other than that, the only other thing which interests me is a potential back to lay of Everton at 23 in the top four finish market but again, transfers are going to play a key role here. Obviously, transfer will effect prices and I might not be able to back at these prices closer to the start of season but I prefer to have as much info as possible before opening a position so I'm happy to lose a few ticks for a good cause.
P3 will be coming soon so keep and eye out for that soon, comments and questions always welcome.
@DarkDyson
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