TOOT (all versions) - Football Strategy

TOOT (The Old One Two) - Part 1, Back O2.5 with 3% between 10-15mins. Part 2, Back O1.5 with 7% between 20-30mins at 1.50+

TOOT Extra - Part 1, Lay U3.5 with 3% liability at 1.50 or less from KO. Part 2, Back O2.5 with 3% between 10-15mins. Part 3, Back O1.5 with 6% at 1.50+

TOOT2 - Part 1, Start of 2nd half back Overs in the goal market which needs 2 more goals with 1.5% at 2.00+. Part 2, Around the 60th minute back Overs in the goal market which needs 1 more goal with 3.5% at 1.50+

My main inplay trade is called The Old One Two (TOOT) and although I do sometimes get carried away with nicknames, this one does actually relate to the trade because it involves backing both the Over 1.5 & Over 2.5 goal markets. After identifying a value price in the O2.5 market, I'll watch the opening 10 to 15mins of the match and then open my trade on the O2.5 market. I might enter a little later than 15mins or drip my stake in over three parts, if the match starts particularly slowly. However, ideally I want to be open in the market for as long as possible so being fully matched in the O2.5 market by 15mins is preferred.

The second part of the trade is the O1.5 which I look to enter at any time between 20 to 30mins into the match. The minimum price I'd enter this market is 1.50 but really we want to be as close to 1.70 as possible, again I'll hold off entering this second part of the trade if, the match still hasn't had much goalmouth action. I don't generally open beyond the 30min mark because again we want the maximum time possible in the market.

The main reason for being open in both 1.5 & 2.5 markets at the same time is that it allows me to reduce the liability (more on that in another post) in one market safe in the knowledge that if a goal is scored while I'm doing so, my position in the other market will still benefit from the goal. Also, it means that I only need 2 goals in a match to make a healthy profit while a third could be a very nice full win but is not essential.

If a goal is scored in the first 10mins before I've opened this trade, I simply wait for the next opportunity (price at 1.50 to 1.70 by 30mins) to open a trade in the O2.5 market (the market which needs 2 goals to close it). If the price doesn't reach the level I'm looking for or if another goal goes in, there are other trades available to use but those will be covered in another post.

If there are no goals in the match by around 60mins, I look at cutting my losses on the O2.5 position but it also depends on how much reducing of liability I've been able to do in the match and my reading of the game. I'll also look at cutting my losses in the O1.5 around the 75min mark, again based on the amount of reducing and game situation.

The total stake I use for this trade is 10% of my trading bank, 3% on O2.5 and 7% on O1.5. If I get the goals as expected and more seem likely, then I use half the profits already banked from TOOT on the Endgame strategy.

TOOT Extra is exactly that, it uses an extra market to the original TOOT strategy, the 3.5 goals market. Part one of the strategy is opened with a lay of Under 3.5 from kick off or very shortly afterwards with 3% liability at a maximum price of 1.50. Obviously, this strategy is only to be used in matches which have a strong possibility of having at least 3 goals but ideally 4+ so, research is vital and discipline is required to cut losses if the goals don't materialise.

Parts two & three of the strategy are essentially the same as the original TOOT, Back O2.5 with 3% between 10-15mins and Back O1.5 with 6% (1% less than TOOT) at 1.50+. The reason for setting the stakes at these levels is that each part of the strategy covers the next, once you're fully matched on all three parts. So, when the second goal is scored we're on a free shot at the third and when the third goes in, we'll been on a free bet at the forth goal. A full win with this strategy will result in a minimum 12% profit, depending on what prices you were able to open each part with. But, a healthy profit can still be made with 3 or even just 2 goals if they both come shortly after opening the third part. Again, the aim is to reduce liability in each part as opportunities arise throughout the match.

It should also be noted that the exit points for this and TOOT are when another goal would no longer result in a profit. You could also set your exit to scratch so, for example after a goal or two, if no more goals seem likely and the price has returned to the entry point the trade is closed for no loss. Finally, you could set a maximum loss amount (usually 50% of stake) before the match but you must have the discipline to stick to your exits once you've set them. Otherwise all you're really doing is gambling, not trading. When actually trading a live match, you want to have to make as few decisions as possible because the more decisions you have during a match, the more mistakes you're likely to make. Set an exit that you're comfortable with before the match starts and then if the market reaches this point, close the trade as planned. This will help your mindset and discipline develop, not to mention improve your results in the long term.

TOOT2 is obviously a variation on a theme and as you can guess from the name it's a second half strategy. It's aimed at capitalising on matches which have been identified as/look likely while trading inplay, to have second half goals, two of them ideally. 

Similar to the original TOOT strategy, this trade is open in two markets at once when fully open. Part 1, is a half time back of Overs in the goal market which needs two more goals to close it, with a stake of 1.5% and the minimum entry price is 2.0. Although there might be a small chance to reduce the liability of the trade at the very start of the 2nd half, with such a small stake it's not really worth it. Part 2 of the strategy is opened around the 60th minute of the match by backing the Overs in the goal market which needs one more goals to close it. With this second part of the trade we're using a 3.5% stake and would only enter the market if the price is above 1.50 because once open with both parts of TOOT2, just one goal in the final 30mins of a match would result in a small profit and a free shot a second goal. Obviously, if you want to be more cautious or don't think a second goal is likely Part 1 can simply be greened up after the first goal or let run to scratch or even a pre determined maximum loss (50% of stake max for example).

However, ideally we're looking for two second half goals to be scored after we're fully open at around the 60th minute. Even at the minimum required entry points a full win with TOOT2, will be 3.25% but in reaity it's going to be closer to 4% because the entry prices will be slightly higher. In terms of an example, tonight's Sunderland V Stoke match which was 0-1 at half time. If opening TOOT2 at the start of the 2nd half, Over 2.5 goals would have been backed at about 2.14 with 1.5% and then on 60mins Over 1.5 goals would have been backed at 1.60 with 3.5%. On this occasion the second goal of the match was scored in the 63rd minute, for a full win on Part 2 and the option of a healthy green book on Part 1. The obvious advantage of greening up Part 1 after the first goal is not only that it guarantees a profit but it also enables us to move some/all of the green onto the Overs later in the match, if it looks like the second goal of the half (3rd overall in this case) is likely to be scored late on.

Of course, if there's no goal or the first goal of the second half doesn't come until very late in the match the loss could be up to 5% although there are TD opportunites to reduce this and it's probable that there are first half profits in the bank already to balance any loss from TOOT2. Ultimately, with the small stake and high number of goals scored late on in games it's well worth the risk if the research and your inplay match reading skills point to second half goals. The best option long term may well prove to be greening up after the first goal, as it puts us into a no lose situation but have a play with it and let me know your thoughts.