As mentioned, football has been my main trading sport since I began this journey and it will continue to make up at least a third of my trading activity over the coming months/years. On this page I'll be posting up my thoughts on games I'm planning to trade and reviews of how it went after the event.
However, this first post will simply cover an overview of how I currently trade a football match. The strategies I use are always under observation and you'll see I like to tinker with them in an effort to find the most suitable approach for me. There are an ever increasing number of ways to trade a match but ultimately, you need to find strategies which not only give you an edge but also, you feel comfortable trading. You can buy trading manuals online or join a trading community (more on this in future posts) to get ready made strategies to use (just don't Lay the draw) or you can also develop them yourself. There's no right or wrong way, as long as you're comfortable trading them and they're delivering long term profits. Obviously, if you're a complete beginner I'd suggest you avoid trying to develop your own strategies for the time being.
Football Strategies (full explanations now on individual pages) -
PMT (Pre Match Trade) - Back or Lay of fav with 50-100%, 1 hour before KO when official team news is released.
FB (Free Bet) - Back Over 2.5 goals with 5-10% at best available price at KO.
Comeback - Lay the team who takes the lead with 2-4% liability.
TOOT (The Old One Two) - Part 1, Back O2.5 with 3% between 10-15mins. Part 2, Back O1.5 with 7% between 20-30mins at 1.50+.
TOOT Extra - Part 1, Lay U3.5 with 3% liability at 1.50 or less from KO. Part 2, Back O2.5 with 3% between 10-15mins. Part 3, Back O1.5 with 6% at 1.50+.
TOOT2 - Part 1, Start of 2nd half back Overs in the goal market which needs 2 more goals with 1.5% at 2.00+. Part 2, Around the 60th minute back Overs in the goal market which needs 1 more goal with 3.5% at 1.50+.
Time Decay (TD) - Taking advantage of fast decaying prices at certain opp's during a match. (Explained in the Time Decay Trading post from 16/04/13)
Endgame - Lay No Goal with 2-4% liability in Next Goal market between 75-80mins at 2.00 or less.
I like to keep things as simply as possible in life and also in my trading. The simpler the strategy is, the less likely I am to make mistakes and the less mistakes I make, the more correctly traded matches I complete. That is the goal, to trade my strategies for a match, correctly and if this is done consistently then I know I'll make a long term profit from them.
The first strategy I use is the Pre Match Trade (PMT) which is a apt abbreviation for it judging on some of the totally unpredictable market moves we seem to encounter on a more and more regular basis this season. PMT is potentially the most lucrative trade of all because as the name suggests we're looking to enter and exit the trade before the match kicks off and this means we can use a very large stake (even up to 100% of our trading bank), safe in the knowledge that there can't be any goals or red cards which would result in a huge price movement.
An hour before KO the official starting lineups will be announced and this is where the opportunity arises to make use PMT. If a starting team is weaker or stronger than expected their price in the Match Odds market will move accordingly, most of time it'll only move between 5 & 10 ticks but with 50%+ of your trading bank in the market each tick is very valuable. There will also be occasions when a manager rests half his usual starting team or 2/3 of his star players and this is when a price can move 20 ticks or even more depending on the strength of the opposition and weight of money in the market. This trade can also be done in the Over/Under 2.5 market, as team lineups obviously effect the goal markets too but sometimes liquidity can be an issue so tread carefully.
Finally on PMT, most teams have a key player or two, who will have the biggest impact on a teams price. If these players are unexpectedly dropped or back from injury it will be reflected in the teams price as punters/traders back or lay the team. I've given my list of key players below but it's by no means definitive so do keep your eyes open for how a teams price is effected when certain players are in or out. Twitter is the best place to get official team news and you sometimes have to move very quickly to get in the market before it moves.
Key Players
Manchester United - RVP & Rooney
Manchester City - Hart, Kompany, Aguero, Yaya
Spurs - Bale
Chelsea - Mata, Cech
Arsenal - Carzola, Walcott
Everton - Fellaini, Howard
Liverpool - Suarez, Reina
West Brom - maybe Foster & Lukaku
Swansea - Michu
Fulham - Berbatov
West Ham - maybe Nolan & Jussi
Southampton - Lambert
Stoke - Begovic
Norwich - ............
Newcastle - Cisse, Krul & maybe Cabaye
Sunderland - Fletcher (oh dear), Mignolet
Wigan - Kone
Aston Villa - Benteke
QPR - Remy
Reading - .......
Obviously, with the worse teams the key players impact isn't as important for the match odds as they're unlikely to win even with the key player/s in the team but there could be a bigger move in the Over/Under markets.
So to recap PMT, I look to back or lay the favourite in the Match Odds market one hour before kick off, depending upon the official starting lineups of both teams. I always use a stop loss, just in case the market goes against my position which is usually around 5 ticks away from my entry price and I always exit the trade by greeening up a few minutes before KO. Sometimes you'll see a price bounce back shortly before KO, so be prepared to exit quickly if it's showing signs of bouncing back. Another important factor to be aware of is that if you're entering the market below 2.0 most prices will move within a 20 tick range. This provides a guide to how much further a price might move and so help you decide when to exit the trade. You can of course just remove your liability at this point and green up at a better price if it goes beyond the 20 tick range.
No comments:
Post a Comment