Unfortunately, I had some technical issues last week so I've not been able to update the previous tissue price post with the BSP. However, I plan to do so soon and will Tweet when it's ready.
Anyway, onto this weekends Premier League tissue prices, for what is the final round of fixtures for the season. I don't know about you but I'm just about ready for a break to be honest but I'm sure I'll be chomping at the bit for some football by the time August comes round! Of course there's still plenty of football on over the summer, June in particular is full of football action with the U21 Championships in Israel and the Confederations cup in Brazil, not to mention the Scandi leagues and MLS. However, I don't trade/bet on any of it as I'd simply be another mug punter with no clue about the teams I would be punting on. Of course, I could spend hours doing research, data mining, analysis and watching of match replay video to get up to speed but then I'd find very poor liquidity in the markets so wouldn't be able to trade the games anyway. Makes much more sense to take a break from football for a few weeks, trade some tennis (which I much prefer as well) and come back fresh for the new season.
Enough of the rambling for now and onto the tissue prices, as usual the current Betfair prices are shown in red next to potential pre-match movers and value bets.
Chelsea are a touch of value but we know Hazard & Terry are both out which might already be accounted for in the price. However, they still might get backed in as often happens with big teams at home but I'm not expecting any big moves pre match.
Chelsea at 1.58 Betfair at 1.72 atm
Everton at 6.43
Draw at 4.74
Unders at 2.14
Overs at 1.88 Betfair at 1.76 atm
Liverpool & Overs are too short as usual for them at home against low grade opponents. Again not expecting anything big pre match unless there's unexpected team news.
Liverpool at 1.36 Betfair at 1.26 atm
QPR at 10.89
Draw at 5.75
Unders at 2.16
Overs at 1.86 Betfair at 1.48 atm
Man City, like Chelsea above are a touch of value & could see some support especially if the team is full strength but again won't be a big move.
Man City at 1.26 Betfair at 1.34 atm
Norwich at 14.14
Draw at 7.31
Unders at 2.75
Overs at 1.57 Betfair at 1.54 atm
Arsenal very short here but wouldn't expect them to drift to be honest, Newcastle might be worth backing on the handicap or double chance. If they can keep it 0-0 for a while and Spurs take the lead in their match, Arsenal could get very nervous.
Newcastle at 3.79
Arsenal at 1.96 Betfair at 1.56 atm
Draw at 4.43
Unders at 2.58
Overs at 1.63 Betfair at 1.60 atm
Saints have been backed in quite a bit recently when playing at home and already they're short, not sure how much further it can go. Similar to Newcastle, Stoke might be worth getting onside as they have been in better form while Saints have been poor of late.
Southampton at 2.11 Betfair at 1.79 atm
Stoke at 3.92
Draw at 3.69
Unders at 1.72 Betfair at 1.79 atm
Overs at 2.40
Swans are short for their final home game and again, I'm not expecting any big moves unless there's some unexpected team news. Fulham have been awful for 6 weeks or so now which is probably why Swans are so short.
Swansea at 2.21 Betfair at 1.82 atm
Fulham at 3.69
Draw at 3.61
Unders at 1.69 Betfair at 2.12 atm
Overs at 2.46
Spurs understandably short here and I fully expect them to win but come up short of Champs League qualification.
Spurs at 1.56 Betfair at 1.31 atm
Sunderland at 6.66
Draw at 4.78
Unders at 2.13
Overs at 1.88 Betfair at 1.60 atm
Utd a touch of value at the moment but this price could drift further after SAF confirmed he's going to play some youngsters in his final game in charge. Plus, he already said that Lindegaard, Evans & Jones will be starting. Keep eyes peeled for team news, both Utd and Overs could see decent moves pre match.
WBA at 5.73
Man Utd at 1.61 Betfair at 1.86 atm
Draw at
Unders at 2.45
Overs at 1.69 Betfair at 1.68 atm
Match odds tissue prices pretty close here but Unders looks a fantastic value bet option. Not expecting any big moves pre match again.
West Ham at 1.78 Betfair at 1.69 atm
Reading at 4.98
Draw at 4.22
Unders at 1.99 Betfair at 2.28 atm
Overs at 2.01
Wigan pretty short here, maybe because Benteke is out for Villa after his sending off last week. With that in mind, Unders again looks good value.
Wigan at 2.69 Betfair at 2.16 atm
Aston Villa at 2.73
Draw at 3.81
Unders at 1.96 Betfair at 2.24 atm
Overs at 2.04
Be wary this weekend, the last games can often throw up some very unpredictable results and usually have more goals than an average week.
I hope the tissue prices are of some use, to help guide you on PMT
strat and/or getting on any straight value bets. As usual please feel
free to comment, question and feedback on any of my tissue prices and
I'll respond as soon as possible. Also, I'll be on Twitter updating my
trading live as it happens.
Cheers and good luck in the markets.
@DarkDyson
Saturday, 18 May 2013
Sunday, 12 May 2013
Premier League Bets - 12/05
Today's bets are going to be a mixture of pure value options, in either the Match Odds or Under/Over 2.5 markets based on my tissue prices (see previous post) and other bets which my research has identified as strong possibilities.
As usual I only take these with minimal stake as live trading is my main source of profit, while these bets simply enable me to capitalise on opportunities in matches I'm not trading.
Stoke V Spurs - Both Teams To Score @1.90
As with a lot of games today and even more in the final week of the season, this match is tricky to call because Stoke have nothing to play for, 41pts keeps them up. Spurs on the other hand can't afford to drop any more points in the race for a Champs League place. Spurs have scored in all of their last 6, while Stoke have scored in 4 of the last 6 but there's no shame in the two blanks, coming against Man Utd & Everton. Plus, 7 out of 9 meetings between the two have seen winning BTTS bets and the price is decent value. Draw/Spurs @5.40 is also worth consideration but the price is no real value.
Final score 1-2, winning bet. Early Stoke goal was the perfect start & Spurs obliged in the 2nd half.
Everton V West Ham - Lay Everton @1.57 & Back Under 2.5 goals @2.20
This match has been complicated by Moyes leaving the club for Man Utd, making this his last home game in charge. It's going to be an emotional day at Goodison, trying to predict how that'll effect performance is virtually impossible and largely futile. Especially, as I my tissue prices identified two execellent value bets already. Under 2.5 goals won in 5 of the last 6 Everton and 4 of the last 6 West Ham games but, anything could happen in this one today. BTTS @1.90 is worth consideration as well but not great value.
Final score 2-0, one winning bet. Got a bit lucky here with both sides coming close to scoring the 3rd goal but neither did in the end thankfully.
Norwich V WBA - Over 2.5 goals @1.94
Motivation won't be an issue for Norwich who know 3pts should be enough to guarantee safety & with Man City away in the final week, it's now or never for them. Obviously, Over 2.5 goals was a winner in 4 of the last 6 games for both these sides and the price is a touch of value.
Final score 4-0, winning bet. Can't say I expected Norwich to win this bet for me on their own but who cares, as long as it wins lol.
More to follow later, good luck.
@DarkDyson
As usual I only take these with minimal stake as live trading is my main source of profit, while these bets simply enable me to capitalise on opportunities in matches I'm not trading.
Stoke V Spurs - Both Teams To Score @1.90
As with a lot of games today and even more in the final week of the season, this match is tricky to call because Stoke have nothing to play for, 41pts keeps them up. Spurs on the other hand can't afford to drop any more points in the race for a Champs League place. Spurs have scored in all of their last 6, while Stoke have scored in 4 of the last 6 but there's no shame in the two blanks, coming against Man Utd & Everton. Plus, 7 out of 9 meetings between the two have seen winning BTTS bets and the price is decent value. Draw/Spurs @5.40 is also worth consideration but the price is no real value.
Final score 1-2, winning bet. Early Stoke goal was the perfect start & Spurs obliged in the 2nd half.
Everton V West Ham - Lay Everton @1.57 & Back Under 2.5 goals @2.20
This match has been complicated by Moyes leaving the club for Man Utd, making this his last home game in charge. It's going to be an emotional day at Goodison, trying to predict how that'll effect performance is virtually impossible and largely futile. Especially, as I my tissue prices identified two execellent value bets already. Under 2.5 goals won in 5 of the last 6 Everton and 4 of the last 6 West Ham games but, anything could happen in this one today. BTTS @1.90 is worth consideration as well but not great value.
Final score 2-0, one winning bet. Got a bit lucky here with both sides coming close to scoring the 3rd goal but neither did in the end thankfully.
Norwich V WBA - Over 2.5 goals @1.94
Motivation won't be an issue for Norwich who know 3pts should be enough to guarantee safety & with Man City away in the final week, it's now or never for them. Obviously, Over 2.5 goals was a winner in 4 of the last 6 games for both these sides and the price is a touch of value.
Final score 4-0, winning bet. Can't say I expected Norwich to win this bet for me on their own but who cares, as long as it wins lol.
More to follow later, good luck.
@DarkDyson
Friday, 10 May 2013
Tissue Prices - EPL - 11/05 to 14/05
This weekends Premier League tissue prices shown below, with comments and current (time of posting) Betfair prices -
Chelsea price looks a touch high (has been slowly coming in), while Overs is low but, with Rafa expected to rest a number of key players we could well see the blues drift. Official team news is key, if there's no Mata, Hazard, Luiz, Oscar, etc then I'll be laying Chelsea and would expect to see Overs drift as well.
Aston Villa at 4.73
Chelsea at 1.79 Betfair at 1.86 atm
Draw at 4.35
Unders at 2.16
Overs at 1.86 Betfair at 1.74 atm
Spurs are too short so look a decent value lay, they have been very slowly drifting and Unders are value too. There's no significant team news expected but if Spurs do drift, the Unders should steam in a little too.
Stoke at 3.60
Spurs at 2.27 Betfair at 1.95 atm
Draw at 3.56
Unders at 1.66 Betfair at 1.86 atm
Overs at 2.53
Everton are a bit short but have been pretty stable, while Unders are excellent value and so worth backing on first impression. Beware that this is David Moyes last home game in charge which could either inspire the team to perform at their best or overwhelm them with emotion. Again no major team news in this match.
Everton at 1.75 Betfair at 1.54 atm
West Ham at 5.44
Draw at 4.08
Unders at 1.80 Betfair at 2.20 atm
Overs at 2.26
Liverpool too short as usual and Fulham could still use another point or three, the LFC lay could be the option again this week. As you can see the Unders are also great value and could come in if Liverpool drift, they will be without Gerrard & Agger but its not often they do drift because of the blind support they get.
Fulham at 3.11
Liverpool at 2.50 Betfair at 2.08 atm
Draw at 3.59
Unders at 1.72 Betfair at 2.26 atm
Overs at 2.38
Norwich a little short but have been slightly drifting and Overs are a touch of value but will steam if the fav's drift. Once again no serious team news expected, these prices might not move much by kick off but a few ticks of profit still possible.
Norwich at 2.43 Betfair at 2.28 atm
WBA at 2.94
Draw at 4.02
Unders at 2.20
Overs at 1.84 Betfair at 1.96 atm
Tissue prices not far off actuals here and again no major team news to move the markets but QPR at anything above 3.20 are good value.
QPR at 2.93
Newcastle at 2.49 Betfair at 2.38 atm
Draw at 3.87
Unders at 2.02
Overs at 1.98 Betfair at 1.96 atm
Betfair have these two much more evenly priced, but the Overs are good value compared to my price. No significant team news is expected here but both teams are value as the draw is too short. Based on the respective home & away records I'd rather have Sunderland on side in this match.
Sunderland at 2.04 Betfair at 2.84 atm
Southampton at 3.79
Draw at 4.07
Unders at 2.09
Overs at 1.92 Betfair at 2.20 atm
Tissue prices almost spot on here, although Overs are a touch short but again beware as this is Sir Alex Ferguson's last home game in charge so again that could inspire a big performance or the emotion of the occasion might get to the team. Had Ferguson not announced his retirement before this game I would confidently predict more than a few players would be rested but now, I expect a full strength team. It's a shame the price can't really get much shorter but still may get a few ticks as people could think they're buying money.
Man Utd at 1.30 Betfair at 1.32 atm
Swansea at 12.30
Draw at 6.60
Unders at 2.53
Overs at 1.65 Betfair at 1.55 atm
I'll add Tuesday's games to this post nearer the time as there's little money in the markets to compare prices. As you can see there's plenty of potential for PMT this weekend and some tasty looking straight value bets. Same as last time I'll update the post next week with details on where the prices actually moved and how many ticks could have been taken or lost, as the case might be.
I hope the tissue prices are of some use, to help guide you on PMT strat and/or getting on any straight value bets. As usual please feel free to comment, question and feedback on any of my tissue prices and I'll respond as soon as possible. Also, I'll be on Twitter updating my trading live as it happens.
Cheers and good luck in the markets.
@DarkDyson
Chelsea price looks a touch high (has been slowly coming in), while Overs is low but, with Rafa expected to rest a number of key players we could well see the blues drift. Official team news is key, if there's no Mata, Hazard, Luiz, Oscar, etc then I'll be laying Chelsea and would expect to see Overs drift as well.
Aston Villa at 4.73
Chelsea at 1.79 Betfair at 1.86 atm
Draw at 4.35
Unders at 2.16
Overs at 1.86 Betfair at 1.74 atm
Spurs are too short so look a decent value lay, they have been very slowly drifting and Unders are value too. There's no significant team news expected but if Spurs do drift, the Unders should steam in a little too.
Stoke at 3.60
Spurs at 2.27 Betfair at 1.95 atm
Draw at 3.56
Unders at 1.66 Betfair at 1.86 atm
Overs at 2.53
Everton are a bit short but have been pretty stable, while Unders are excellent value and so worth backing on first impression. Beware that this is David Moyes last home game in charge which could either inspire the team to perform at their best or overwhelm them with emotion. Again no major team news in this match.
Everton at 1.75 Betfair at 1.54 atm
West Ham at 5.44
Draw at 4.08
Unders at 1.80 Betfair at 2.20 atm
Overs at 2.26
Liverpool too short as usual and Fulham could still use another point or three, the LFC lay could be the option again this week. As you can see the Unders are also great value and could come in if Liverpool drift, they will be without Gerrard & Agger but its not often they do drift because of the blind support they get.
Fulham at 3.11
Liverpool at 2.50 Betfair at 2.08 atm
Draw at 3.59
Unders at 1.72 Betfair at 2.26 atm
Overs at 2.38
Norwich a little short but have been slightly drifting and Overs are a touch of value but will steam if the fav's drift. Once again no serious team news expected, these prices might not move much by kick off but a few ticks of profit still possible.
Norwich at 2.43 Betfair at 2.28 atm
WBA at 2.94
Draw at 4.02
Unders at 2.20
Overs at 1.84 Betfair at 1.96 atm
Tissue prices not far off actuals here and again no major team news to move the markets but QPR at anything above 3.20 are good value.
QPR at 2.93
Newcastle at 2.49 Betfair at 2.38 atm
Draw at 3.87
Unders at 2.02
Overs at 1.98 Betfair at 1.96 atm
Betfair have these two much more evenly priced, but the Overs are good value compared to my price. No significant team news is expected here but both teams are value as the draw is too short. Based on the respective home & away records I'd rather have Sunderland on side in this match.
Sunderland at 2.04 Betfair at 2.84 atm
Southampton at 3.79
Draw at 4.07
Unders at 2.09
Overs at 1.92 Betfair at 2.20 atm
Tissue prices almost spot on here, although Overs are a touch short but again beware as this is Sir Alex Ferguson's last home game in charge so again that could inspire a big performance or the emotion of the occasion might get to the team. Had Ferguson not announced his retirement before this game I would confidently predict more than a few players would be rested but now, I expect a full strength team. It's a shame the price can't really get much shorter but still may get a few ticks as people could think they're buying money.
Man Utd at 1.30 Betfair at 1.32 atm
Swansea at 12.30
Draw at 6.60
Unders at 2.53
Overs at 1.65 Betfair at 1.55 atm
I'll add Tuesday's games to this post nearer the time as there's little money in the markets to compare prices. As you can see there's plenty of potential for PMT this weekend and some tasty looking straight value bets. Same as last time I'll update the post next week with details on where the prices actually moved and how many ticks could have been taken or lost, as the case might be.
I hope the tissue prices are of some use, to help guide you on PMT strat and/or getting on any straight value bets. As usual please feel free to comment, question and feedback on any of my tissue prices and I'll respond as soon as possible. Also, I'll be on Twitter updating my trading live as it happens.
Cheers and good luck in the markets.
@DarkDyson
Saturday, 4 May 2013
Premier League Bets - 04/05
Please note that the following bets were all taken yesterday so prices will have changed by today/KO, although last week they pretty much all got bigger so lucky for anyone who got involved!
Had a cracking week last week with 4/6 winners and one at 6.20, while many around me were struggling with the end of season enhanced unpredictability of the Premier League. With that mind tread carefully when getting involved this weekend, as games become more and more meaningless for more and more teams.
Swansea V Man City - Under 2.5 goals @2.00
The Swans checked out for the season sometime ago which is usually what happens to most League Cup winners. Subsequently haven't won in 6 games and they've only scored 4 in their last 8 as well. Man City are in good form with 6 wins in their last 8 matches but have the FA Cup final coming up next week so might not be quite as motivated to go for it here. Couple that with the fact that both teams are decent at the back and I think we've got a value (my tissue is 1.82) bet here, could easily see 0-1 or 0-2 result in this one.
Final score 0-0, winning bet and never in danger by the sounds of it. Also had a winning lay @1.78 of Man City here, as per my tissue prices.
Spurs V Saints - Both Teams To Score @1.90
Both these teams have been in good form recently, although Saints lost at home last week they had been unbeaten in 6 games before that. Spurs are obviously still battling hard to grab a Champions League place and should win this match, but with just 17% clean sheets at home and with Saints only having been shut out 4 times away, the good price on offer makes BTTS an easy choice.
Final score 1-0, losing bet but Saints had their chances & Bale saves the day (again).
WBA V Wigan - WBA Draw No Bet @1.78
Hopefully you've seen my previous post of the tissue prices for this weekend and realised that WBA are great value to beat Wigan. However, as mentioned the prices don't account for the fact that WBA have nothing to play for while Wigan are again trying to sneak out of the relegation zone at the last minute. It's a hard game to call but DNB at the price is a great option as I'm not convinced they'll beat Wigan on current form.
Final score 2-3, losing bet but could have gone either way, typical of Wigan!
Only three straight bets this weekend but there are the pre match trades (PMT) and value bets on the tissue price post from yesterday as well. Updates on all the bets and value positions will be posted up next week but as usual, I'll be all over Twitter especially on Sunday when I'll be trading the Merseyside derby.
Good luck if you're in the markets this weekend and please feel free to comment and/or question via the blog or Twitter.
@DarkDyson
Had a cracking week last week with 4/6 winners and one at 6.20, while many around me were struggling with the end of season enhanced unpredictability of the Premier League. With that mind tread carefully when getting involved this weekend, as games become more and more meaningless for more and more teams.
Swansea V Man City - Under 2.5 goals @2.00
The Swans checked out for the season sometime ago which is usually what happens to most League Cup winners. Subsequently haven't won in 6 games and they've only scored 4 in their last 8 as well. Man City are in good form with 6 wins in their last 8 matches but have the FA Cup final coming up next week so might not be quite as motivated to go for it here. Couple that with the fact that both teams are decent at the back and I think we've got a value (my tissue is 1.82) bet here, could easily see 0-1 or 0-2 result in this one.
Final score 0-0, winning bet and never in danger by the sounds of it. Also had a winning lay @1.78 of Man City here, as per my tissue prices.
Spurs V Saints - Both Teams To Score @1.90
Both these teams have been in good form recently, although Saints lost at home last week they had been unbeaten in 6 games before that. Spurs are obviously still battling hard to grab a Champions League place and should win this match, but with just 17% clean sheets at home and with Saints only having been shut out 4 times away, the good price on offer makes BTTS an easy choice.
Final score 1-0, losing bet but Saints had their chances & Bale saves the day (again).
WBA V Wigan - WBA Draw No Bet @1.78
Hopefully you've seen my previous post of the tissue prices for this weekend and realised that WBA are great value to beat Wigan. However, as mentioned the prices don't account for the fact that WBA have nothing to play for while Wigan are again trying to sneak out of the relegation zone at the last minute. It's a hard game to call but DNB at the price is a great option as I'm not convinced they'll beat Wigan on current form.
Final score 2-3, losing bet but could have gone either way, typical of Wigan!
Only three straight bets this weekend but there are the pre match trades (PMT) and value bets on the tissue price post from yesterday as well. Updates on all the bets and value positions will be posted up next week but as usual, I'll be all over Twitter especially on Sunday when I'll be trading the Merseyside derby.
Good luck if you're in the markets this weekend and please feel free to comment and/or question via the blog or Twitter.
@DarkDyson
Friday, 3 May 2013
Tissue Prices - EPL - 04/05 to 06/05
This year I've started to generate my own tissue prices for EPL matches, as a way to improve my knowledge of pricing but primarily to help me spot potential PMT opportunities and value bets in games i'm not trading.
I generate the prices by running goal expectation figures (from the past 4 seasons including the current one), through a poisson distribution calculation. Please don't ask me to explain in any depth about the calculation because I'm afraid I can't help you with that (my maths is poor to say the least) but Google/YouTube will be able to help, so check it out if you want more info.
The spreadsheet I use produces Match Odds and Under/Over 2.5 goal prices and I've posted the coming weekends prices below. I'll cross reference them with the BSP over the weekend and see which prices moved in the direction of my tissue and the result of any potential value bets identified along the way.
Obviously, the initial tissue prices doesn't take into account any injuries/rotation or other factors as it's a pure mathematically produced price so, in some cases I'll amend the price slightly to account for those other factors. Although, I've not done so below in order to have a constant baseline to test the prices from. Also, this is very much a work in progress and there's already some tweaks I've got in mind to improve the reliability next season. Anyway, this weekends are shown below and i'll update this post after all the games are completed.
My tissue prices, with comments based on current Betfair prices -
5 ticks possible on Fulham but Over 2.5 the main mover here.
Fulham at 1.60 Could shorten as 1.75 atm, BSP was 1.70
Reading at 6.30
Draw at 4.60
Unders at 2.05
Overs at 1.96 BSP was 1.84
No real movement here from initial price posted up on Friday.
Norwich at 2.34 Could shorten as 2.60 atm, BSP was 2.64
Aston Villa at 3.23
Draw at 3.80
Unders at 1.90
Overs at 2.11
6 ticks possible on Man City which I took and left as straight lay thankfully.
Swansea at 4.37 Value Bet at 5.30 atm, BSP was 5.10
Man City at 1.94 Value Lay at 1.78 atm, BSP was 1.84
Draw at 3.91
Unders at 1.83
Overs at 2.20
6 ticks possible on Spurs here (would always lay the odds on instead of backing odds against with PMT)
Spurs at 1.47
Southampton at 7.20 Value bet at 8.20 atm, BSP was 7.60
Draw at 5.49
Unders at 2.69
Overs at 1.59
3 ticks on WBA, was hoping for a bit more with this one tbh.
WBA at 1.64 Could shorten and Value bet at 2.46 atm, BSP was 2.40
Wigan at 5.61
Draw at 4.74
Unders at 2.34
Overs at 1.75
West Ham at 2.20
Newcastle at 3.40
Draw at 3.97
Unders at 2.06
Overs at 1.95
QPR at 5.96 Value bet at 9.0 atm,
Arsenal at 1.61 Value Lay at 1.44 atm,
Draw at 4.77
Unders at 2.28
Overs at 1.78
Liverpool at 1.98
Everton at 4.25
Draw at 3.85
Unders at 1.80
Overs at 2.26
Big drift on Utd, all down to the weakened team. These are the ones we want to be on, with unexpected team changes the prices can go crazy. It also illustrates why waiting for official team news is the least risky way to use the PMT strat.
Man Utd at 1.84 Could shorten and Value bet at 2.24 atm,
Chelsea at 4.38
Draw at 4.40
Unders at 2.33
Overs at 1.75
Sunderland at 2.12
Stoke at 4.19
Draw at 3.46
Unders at 1.54
Overs at 2.85
You'll see above when the best teams play weak opposition, they're often shorter than my tissue but this doesn't mean they should be laid with the PMT strategy. The main reason they could drift is if the short priced fav, unexpectedly rests one or two star players. Which is why I haven't said that Saints, QPR or Swansea could shorten in price but they are good value straight bets. Obviously, none of them are very likely to win their games so, you might want to lay the fav's instead to keep the draw on your side.
The ones which are more likely too move regardless of unexpected team news are closer matched teams where the price is simply wrong. Fulham, Norwich, WBA and Man Utd, all fall into this category but as with all PMT's team news is key and remember the trend is your friend!
Also, the matches above with no notes next to them are priced up just about right, inline with my tissue prices.
I'll add the potential pre match moves/value bets on Saturday and then update results next week. As usual, all comments and feedback is appreciated.
Good luck with your trading,
@DarkDyson
I generate the prices by running goal expectation figures (from the past 4 seasons including the current one), through a poisson distribution calculation. Please don't ask me to explain in any depth about the calculation because I'm afraid I can't help you with that (my maths is poor to say the least) but Google/YouTube will be able to help, so check it out if you want more info.
The spreadsheet I use produces Match Odds and Under/Over 2.5 goal prices and I've posted the coming weekends prices below. I'll cross reference them with the BSP over the weekend and see which prices moved in the direction of my tissue and the result of any potential value bets identified along the way.
Obviously, the initial tissue prices doesn't take into account any injuries/rotation or other factors as it's a pure mathematically produced price so, in some cases I'll amend the price slightly to account for those other factors. Although, I've not done so below in order to have a constant baseline to test the prices from. Also, this is very much a work in progress and there's already some tweaks I've got in mind to improve the reliability next season. Anyway, this weekends are shown below and i'll update this post after all the games are completed.
My tissue prices, with comments based on current Betfair prices -
5 ticks possible on Fulham but Over 2.5 the main mover here.
Fulham at 1.60 Could shorten as 1.75 atm, BSP was 1.70
Reading at 6.30
Draw at 4.60
Unders at 2.05
Overs at 1.96 BSP was 1.84
No real movement here from initial price posted up on Friday.
Norwich at 2.34 Could shorten as 2.60 atm, BSP was 2.64
Aston Villa at 3.23
Draw at 3.80
Unders at 1.90
Overs at 2.11
6 ticks possible on Man City which I took and left as straight lay thankfully.
Swansea at 4.37 Value Bet at 5.30 atm, BSP was 5.10
Man City at 1.94 Value Lay at 1.78 atm, BSP was 1.84
Draw at 3.91
Unders at 1.83
Overs at 2.20
6 ticks possible on Spurs here (would always lay the odds on instead of backing odds against with PMT)
Spurs at 1.47
Southampton at 7.20 Value bet at 8.20 atm, BSP was 7.60
Draw at 5.49
Unders at 2.69
Overs at 1.59
3 ticks on WBA, was hoping for a bit more with this one tbh.
WBA at 1.64 Could shorten and Value bet at 2.46 atm, BSP was 2.40
Wigan at 5.61
Draw at 4.74
Unders at 2.34
Overs at 1.75
West Ham at 2.20
Newcastle at 3.40
Draw at 3.97
Unders at 2.06
Overs at 1.95
QPR at 5.96 Value bet at 9.0 atm,
Arsenal at 1.61 Value Lay at 1.44 atm,
Draw at 4.77
Unders at 2.28
Overs at 1.78
Liverpool at 1.98
Everton at 4.25
Draw at 3.85
Unders at 1.80
Overs at 2.26
Big drift on Utd, all down to the weakened team. These are the ones we want to be on, with unexpected team changes the prices can go crazy. It also illustrates why waiting for official team news is the least risky way to use the PMT strat.
Man Utd at 1.84 Could shorten and Value bet at 2.24 atm,
Chelsea at 4.38
Draw at 4.40
Unders at 2.33
Overs at 1.75
Sunderland at 2.12
Stoke at 4.19
Draw at 3.46
Unders at 1.54
Overs at 2.85
You'll see above when the best teams play weak opposition, they're often shorter than my tissue but this doesn't mean they should be laid with the PMT strategy. The main reason they could drift is if the short priced fav, unexpectedly rests one or two star players. Which is why I haven't said that Saints, QPR or Swansea could shorten in price but they are good value straight bets. Obviously, none of them are very likely to win their games so, you might want to lay the fav's instead to keep the draw on your side.
The ones which are more likely too move regardless of unexpected team news are closer matched teams where the price is simply wrong. Fulham, Norwich, WBA and Man Utd, all fall into this category but as with all PMT's team news is key and remember the trend is your friend!
Also, the matches above with no notes next to them are priced up just about right, inline with my tissue prices.
I'll add the potential pre match moves/value bets on Saturday and then update results next week. As usual, all comments and feedback is appreciated.
Good luck with your trading,
@DarkDyson
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