Time Decay - Football Strategy

Taking advantage of fast decaying prices at certain opportunities during a match. 

For example the Under 2.5 goals price of a match might start at 2.10 and with every passing minute of the game, the possibility of the match ending with under 2.5 goals is increasing because there's less time for the 3 goals necessary to close the market, to be scored in. As such the price will reduce (decay) continuously throughout the match until the market closes, either due to the game ending with under 2.5 goals or because there's been 3 goals scored.

TD trading can essentially be done in any market but the Under/Over markets are the most common and liquid ones to trade. However correct score, match odds and various half time markets, all offer good opportunities to profit from TD trading as well. Obviously, if a goal is scored while you're open with a TD trade you'll have to take a loss (there are ways to reduce the loss, explained later) and this is why a lot of novice traders find TD trading difficult and/or more stressful than other strategies. 

Football is about scoring goals and we naturally expect most games to have one, two or more goals scored during 90mins. So, using TD which is specifically designed to take advantage of price movement when there are no goals doesn't seem quite right, it almost feels unnatural to be hoping the match stays at 0-0 or whatever it's present score. This leads to a nervousness about using TD, a goal could be scored at any moment which would result in a losing trade and then the inevitable questioning begins. "Why was I trying a TD trade in this game? I knew there would be goals!" or "Why do I always get caught by goals when in TD!" but, it'll help to remember some basic facts such as, in the Premier League so far this season the average goals per game is 2.81. This means that on average a goal is scored roughly every 32mins which, is obviously a long time in a football match and helps to put in perspective how unlikely it is to get caught while doing TD.

The risk of getting caught can also be reducded in a number of other ways such as using trading software. The ladder layout, moving averages and weight of money graphs available in Bet Angel show exactly how much money's in the market, this enables us to see when the price slows and/or stops moving. This is not the right time to be open in TD and in fact if you're open with TD when the price slows or stops (resistance point), it can be very profitable to switch to the other side of the market just in case there's a goal but this is a more advanced technique. As a beginner, it makes sense to simply green up the TD trade when the price slows/stops moving and then reopen it when the price starts moving again. Another simple way of avoiding getting caught by a goal is to green up when there's a dangerous/direct free kick close to the box which, could easily result in a shot on goal. Although, I don't tend to green up when there's a corner, surprisingly few goals are scored from corners but there's nothing wrong in closing the TD at corners if you're not comfortable with staying open.

With TD we're looking to take advantage of short bursts of quick price movements, to take the maximum amount of profit (ticks) possible but without spending more than a few minutes open in the markets. This approach to TD also helps avoid getting caught by a goal, obviously the less time spent open in TD, the less likely you are to get by a goal. There are some periods in a match when the price in the Under/Over market will move quicker than others and this is where TD is its most effective.

For example, if a match starts slowly with niether team committing many players forward in attacking positions and as such there's very little if any, goalmouth action in the opening 10-15mins. The price of Under 2.5 goals will move quickly down to around the 1.70 or even 1.60 range, however it will slow significantly at this point because although the match has started slowly, there's obviously still a lot of time left for goals to be scored. Another period in a match where the Unders price moves quickly is shortly after a goal which not only provides an opportunity for TD but also to reduce a loss if the goal came while already open in a TD trade. Either simply leave the trade on Unders open after the goal and benefit from the rapid price drop in the following minutes and then close the trade (I would only stay open a maximum of 3-5mins when doing this) which will reduce the loss. The other option is to immediately close the TD trade for a loss but open another TD trade in the next Under/Over market up. So, if you were caught while in TD on Under 2.5, you would red that market and open TD on Under 3.5, again taking advantage of the quick drop in price to make some profit to balance the original loss. My preference is the second option but either way, if another goal goes in quickly after the first the loss is at least doubled.

TD in the Under/Over markets is generally done in the market which needs two or three goals to close it because if a goal does catch you out, it won't result in a full loss. For example, if open in TD on Under 2.5 from the start of a match a goal will usually result in around a 40% loss of stake. There are occasions when TD can be traded in markets which would close if one goal were scored and they can be very profitable but stakes must be reduced accordingly. Other times which prices move quickly are obviously at the end of the first half and near the end of full time, it's worth studying graphs (even the standard ones on Betfair) while a match is on, to get an idea of when and by how much prices decay over time.

Also, don't forget that while one price is going down, the other must be going up and there are occasions when you would lay a price and look to back it a few minutes later at a significantly higher price, after a quick drift. This often happens in the Half Time market, if the favourite has got off to a particularly slow start and the underdog has created a few good goal scoring opportunities. The major benefit of this type of trade is obviously, if the underdog should score during this period of dominating the game, the favourites price will potentially (depending on how big a fav they were and how long is left in the match) fly up much higher and enable you to close the trade for a much bigger profit than expected.

I could go on for ages with this post but it's already too long so, I'll stop there and go in more detail about specific TD trading I use at a later date. I hope some find it interesting/useful and as usual please feel free to comment and/or get in touch.