Unfortunately, due to a technical issue I've lost the final part of my early season trades series but I'm planning a quick summary post of all the early season trades I'm looking at so, I'll include them in that but, obviously there won't be full reasoning to go with them.
Onto this post, it's just a bit of house keeping really which follows on from last season and just explains a few tools I use for my trading and betting. Firstly, you'll often see in my match previews that I grade all the EPL teams which really helps when doing the research for any given match. Obviously, teams perform better against certain grades than others and it's important to be able to narrow all the stats down to the most relevant ones for your needs.
My grades are divided into four levels with 1 being the top grade and 4 the bottom. A couple of things to note are that once the grades are set at the start of the season, I only review them once halfway through the season and it's still rare that a team will change grade even then. Spurs & Arsenal have come the closest to changing in the last two seasons but in the end I left them as they were. Also, when researching games between grade 1 & grade 2 teams, I actually use combined stats from both grades because the sample size from just one of the those grades is too small. Plus, grade 2 teams can beat grade 1 teams on any given day, it's their consistency over the whole season which ultimately lets them down when it comes to the title race.
My gradings -
Grade 1 - Man Utd, Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal
Grade 2 - Spurs, Liverpool, Everton
Grade 3 - WBA, Swansea, Norwich, Fulham, Stoke, Aston Villa, Newcastle, Sunderland
Grade 4 - West Ham, Southampton, Cardiff, Hull, Palace
I'll only move a team up from grade 4 into grade 3 after they've survived at least 2 seasons in the Premier League and hence show the capability to develop into an established EPL team.
It might seem a little harsh on WBA and Swansea in particular to have them in with teams who battled relegation all season long but although they've done well recently it still wouldn't be huge surprise to see teams like them struggle the season after a successful one. Conversely, it wouldn't be a total shock to see one of the other grade 3 teams rediscover some form and end up finishing up near 7th place.
Similarly, it would take a few seasons of Spurs finishing in 4th ahead of Arsenal for them to switch places, although there is potential for the top grade to include 5 teams if Spurs can really mount a sustained challenge for the title. Then again it seems more likely that it might only be 3 teams in the top grade, if neither North London club manages to keep pace with the big 3. I guess only time will tell but for research purposes, I'm happy with these gradings for the upcoming season.
Along with the gradings, I look for each teams key players in terms of potential pre match market moves. For example if RVP is rested for a match, Man Utds price will drift to reflect their weakened team and reduced confidence in them winning the match. This list is one that can change during the season but it will take a number of months for a player to reach a level where his absence is viewed as critical to a teams prospects of winning. Especially, with a new signing who's never played in the EPL before.
Key players 2013/14 -
Manchester United - RVP & De Gea
Manchester City - Hart, Kompany, Aguero
Spurs - Bale, lloris
Chelsea - Mata, Cech
Arsenal - Carzola
Everton - Fellaini, Howard, Baines
Liverpool - Suarez
West Brom - maybe Foster
Swansea - Michu
Fulham - Berbatov
West Ham - maybe Jussi
Southampton - Lambert
Stoke - Begovic
Norwich - ............
Newcastle - Krul & maybe Cabaye
Sunderland - .........
Aston Villa - Benteke
Cardiff -.............
Hull -...........
Palace........
You can see last season list here, if you want to compare -
http://tradinginthedark.blogspot.co.uk/p/football.html
As mentioned this can change during the season and is very much open to debate. Also, it'll be interesting to see what happens with a few teams because of their managerial changes. It seems as though the market has lost a lot of confidence in Man Utd now Fergie has gone, I was astonished to see them priced at 1.5+ for the Community Shield against Wigan, despite fielding a strong team the price actually drifted a little further before kick off. I suspect that unless they got off the flyer this season Utd will continue to be great value which, I for one will be all over like a rash. As RVP said after the match on Sunday when asked about Utd being rated as third fav's by the bookies, he said - "i'm not being funny but, we are the champions", this tells me despite the lack of signings and change of manager the teams is in the right frame of mind and are confident of success during the coming season.
Chelsea due to Mourinho and Man City due to all their signings could see a Liverpool like effect pre match, with their price steaming in regarless of team news. Either way, there'll be some great opportunities to profit so keep an eye on Twitter for live updates on both pre match trades and in play.
Finally, you'll also notice that I won't be trading or betting on any match which involves a newly promoted team, for around the first 6 games of the season. I simply don't know enough about them and with their form from last season being of absolutely no use whatsoever this season, I'm quite happy to ignore them and find better opportunities amongst the other seven fixtures during those opening weeks of the season. Naturally, if some obvious/strong early trend appears with one of the new sides, I'll investigate it further but there's more than enough to work with in the other games anyway.
Cheers & good luck,
@DarkDyson
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