Before I get stuck into part two, just a quick clarification that these early season trades are all going to be Back to Lay or Lay to Back trades which, I will probably jump in and out of over 4 to 6 week periods as the season progresses. This is why I won't be stipulating any specific exit prices at this stage. I fully expect to back and lay multiple teams, multiple times, hopefully in perfect harmony with their form which, will result in a healthy greenbook by seasons end (at least that's the plan lol).
Now, for part two which logically moves down from the top three and onto the battle for Champions League qualification. I can appreciate that some Arsenal and even a few Spurs fans I know, would try to argue that their teams will be involved at the business end of the title race this season. I do think this could be one of the most open title races ever and potentially with more teams involved than usual but realistically, it's going to take a small miracle for either North London club to get really close to winning the Premier League this coming season. The prices of these second tier teams in the outright Premier League Winner market reflect this quite clearly -
Arsenal at 11.5
Spurs at 36
Liverpool at 36
Everton at 560
One thing to note here is that Spurs being priced the same as Liverpool, just doesn't look right to me. Liverpool finished 11pts behind Spurs and could well lose their best player with Suarez today again clarifying his desire to leave Merseyside. While Spurs have already signed Paulinho and will clearly be splashing more cash before the window shuts. It also seems that Bale is unlikley to leave until next summer. Their first six matches of the season (shown below) look very winnable and so that price could steam in, especially if they win the North London derby.
Spurs - Palace (A), Swansea (H), Arsenal (A), Norwich (H), Cardiff (A), Chelsea (H)
Personally, I'm not sure I'll be on them in the outright but I'll be keeping an eye on the first couple of games to see how they've started. Similarly, Arsenal although not as big a price like Spurs have an even easier start (see below) to the season and if Wenger brings in the right players, who then hit the ground running, their price of 11.5 will quickly vanish. Another to keep an eye on during the first couple of games.
Arsenal - Villa (H), Fulham (A), Spurs (H), Sunderland (A), Stoke (H), Swansea (A)
The market i'm actually going to focus on for these teams is, the Top Four finish market which can provide some great trading opportunities throughout the season. Current prices for these teams to finish in the top four are as follows -
Arsenal at 1.6
Spurs at 2.78
Liverpool at 3.8
Everton at 23
As you can see from the fixtures above both Arsenal and Spurs will be expecting to win at least four of their opening six matches, but with the derby coming so early in the season it could prove vital to both teams as a marker for the first half of their seasons. However, Arsenal have used derby day defeats to fuel a great run of form in the previous two seasons so, we'll have to wait and see how it effects each side in the following weeks. What is clear is that if they both arrive at the derby undefeated as expected, the winner at the Emirates should see their price for a top four finish come in nicely.
Meanwhile, Liverpool are only slightly further back at 3.8 which I believe is way to short. Although, they have seemingly have a good chance of overtaking local rivals Everton and finishing 6th next season, their squad is some way behind both Arsenal and Spurs in my opinion. Once Suarez forces his way out of Anfield, they'll be even further behind. But, their opening fixtures have been kind -
Liverpool - Stoke (H), Villa (A), United (H), Swansea (A), Southampton (H), Sunderland (A)
Apart from playing the champions at home in week three, these first six games look eminently winnable on paper and thus you could easily think that five wins from six is well within their reach. Sadly for Liverpool, these are just the sort of games they inexplicably drop points in, Southampton, Stoke and Villa all beat Liverpool last season. With that and the short price in mind, along with my confidence in both Arsenal and Spurs, I simply can't consider them as a back to lay option at the moment.
Finally, onto Everton who start the season without David Moyes for the first time in 11 years. I think the main reason for the lack of belief in Everton obviously has plenty to do with their new manager Martinez, the fact he relegated Wigan and his desire to bring in as many Wigan players as possible. Also, there's plenty of interest in Fellaini and Baines from Champions League clubs, if they did leave it would be a big blow to their chances. However, their opening fixtures are also pretty soft, except for one -
Everton - Norwich (A), WBA (H), Cardiff (A), Chelsea (H), West Ham (A), Newcastle (H)
Despite criticizing Martinez's strategy of cherry picking his old Wigan players to join him at Everton, I actually think that Kone could be a real star for them this season. He proved he can score goals in the Premier League last season and even if Fellaini and Baines leave in the summer, there's still Pienaar, Osman, Mirallas and others to create chances for him. There's definietly potential for Everton to get off to a strong start and their price of 23 certinaly looks attractive, although it would take at least two of the other teams to have a slow start along with Everton starting well for the price to shorten a decent amount, this early in the season.
Summary -
I like the price of Spurs in the outright market, as it could contract nicely if they can start well by beating at least one of Arsenal or Chelsea. But I'm happy to wait for now and see who they're able to bring in up front, because Adebayor and Defoe on their own simply isn't good or consistent enough for their lofty ambitions. I also like them in the top four market but obviously, I'm holding off there too for now.
Arsenal's prices are both a little skinny for my liking, although I do feel there's a lot of potential for a strong start, if the squad shapes up and the likes of Diaby & Wilshire are fully fit. If not, I might well be laying them.
Other than that, the only other thing which interests me is a potential back to lay of Everton at 23 in the top four finish market but again, transfers are going to play a key role here. Obviously, transfer will effect prices and I might not be able to back at these prices closer to the start of season but I prefer to have as much info as possible before opening a position so I'm happy to lose a few ticks for a good cause.
P3 will be coming soon so keep and eye out for that soon, comments and questions always welcome.
@DarkDyson
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