The third part of my early season trades posts, looks at the English Premier League relegation market. Because of the large number of clubs that need to be covered in this post, I'll probably split it into a few parts, hence the P3-A naming convention.
The first part of this post will focus on the market leaders in the relegation race, based on current Betfair prices (shown below) while, the following parts obviously cover the remainder. As with all my early season trades, I'm only looking for which of the teams prices have the greatest potential to move, either up or down during the first six games of the season. Initially, this is based upon the relative strength or weakness of each teams schedule and any impact that new signings may have on the percieved strength of their teams. Each week, as the season progresses I'll be reviewing my positions and reasoning for each trade, making adjustments as and when necessary.
Relegation Prices -
Palace @1.57
Hull @1.69
Cardiff @2.98
As usual the three newly promoted teams are currently the favourites to be relegated but as you can see, Cardiff are clearly considered to have the best chance of staying up while both Palace & Hull are odds on to return to the Championship after just one season at the top table. However, there's often one of the promoted teams that gets off to a flying start to the season and more often than not, a large part of the reason they start well is down to the relatively easy games they are faced with. West Ham's record after six games last season read W3 D2 L1 which is just about as good as it gets for newly promoted team. Take a look at the teams they played in the opening six games of last season -
Villa (H), Swansea (A), Fulham (H), Norwich (A), Sunderland (H), QPR (A)
Swansea were the only team to beat the Hammers in these first six matches and despite an extended run of poor form around the turn of the year, they were never in any danger of being relegated and actually managed to finish 10th. A good start to the season can make all the difference to a side that are expected to be involved in a relegation battle because it gives them valuable points on the board and the an additional boost of confidence, that they can compete at this level. Later in the season when things aren't going so well, they're able to draw confidence from those early games, belief that they've won at this level before and can do so again.
Crystal Palace are the favourites to make a swift return to the Championship but Ian Holloway came very close to keeping Blackpool in the Premier League recently and that experience will certainly help them in what seems certain to be a long and hard battle against relegation. The battle starts with a tough looking first six games -
Palace - Spurs (H), Stoke (A), Sunderland (H), Utd (A), Swansea (H), Southampton (A)
To be honest, anything from 4 to 6pts would be a decent start with those fixtures for the Championship play off winners. But I'm sure they'll make Selhurst Park a tough place to go, last season they only lost twice at home mainly due to the league high 52 goals they scored. Obviously, they won't be able to repeat those figures in the Premier League but they could surprise a few teams if they're underestimated.
Hull - Chelsea (A), Norwich (H), Man City (A), Cardiff (H), Newcastle (A), West Ham (H)
This set of fixtures for Hull couldn't really get much worse and again if they can get anything around 4 to 6pts from them, they have to be reasonably happy. Bruce has been very active in the transfer window and has got in some of his old favourites, Figueroa and Elmohamady amongst them which, should definitely help in the anticipated relegation battle. However, with this set of opening fixures I'm tempted to try a little back to lay trade on them as I wouldn't be surprised if they still had no points after the first three games.
Finally, the Championship champions from last season, Cardiff. Who, unlike Hull haven't been able to complete much transfer business at all so far and subsequently look like they're going to have to rely on much of last seasons squad to avoid relegation this season. This isn't a tactic (accidental or not) which I believe is going to do them any good at all and neither are their opening six fixtures.
Cardiff - West Ham (A), Man City (H), Everton (H), Hull (A), Spurs (H), Fulham (A)
Newly promoted sides often talk about winning their home games as being key to survival but with this set of home games, Cardiff are in for a really tough introduction to life at the top table of English (& Welsh) football. The one saving grace is maybe that both City and Everton have new managers this season so playing them early could be the best time to play them, as they won't have worked out their best team or tactics at such an early stage in the season. Even so, once again 4 to 6pts would be a decent return from this start to their Premier League campaign.
Summary -
At the moment it's not looking good for the newcomers but then again, it never really does at the start of the season. However, usually at least one of the promoted sides gets off to a good start and it's not always the team you might expect it to be. The first three games in particular have been much kinder to Palace than both Hull or Cardiff and with their price already at 1.57 there's not really that much further for it to go. With a London derby against Spurs at home on the opening day, it could be Palace who get off to a flyer and if not, as mentioned the price can't go that far anyway. So, crazy as it sounds I'm probably going to have a little lay to back trade on Palace from the start.
I'll also keep a close eye on which of the other two look most likely to have a good/bad start, after the first couple of games and potentially jump on if an opportunity arises. Cardiff could be a back to lay but we'll see. As usual keep an eye on Twitter for further updates during the first few weeks of the season.
Good luck,
@DarkDyson
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