This year I've started to generate my own tissue prices for EPL matches, as a way to improve my knowledge of pricing but primarily to help me spot potential PMT opportunities and value bets in games i'm not trading.
I generate the prices by running goal expectation figures (from the past 4 seasons including the current one), through a poisson distribution calculation. Please don't ask me to explain in any depth about the calculation because I'm afraid I can't help you with that (my maths is poor to say the least) but Google/YouTube will be able to help, so check it out if you want more info.
The spreadsheet I use produces Match Odds and Under/Over 2.5 goal prices and I've posted the coming weekends prices below. I'll cross reference them with the BSP over the weekend and see which prices moved in the direction of my tissue and the result of any potential value bets identified along the way.
Obviously, the initial tissue prices doesn't take into account any injuries/rotation or other factors as it's a pure mathematically produced price so, in some cases I'll amend the price slightly to account for those other factors. Although, I've not done so below in order to have a constant baseline to test the prices from. Also, this is very much a work in progress and there's already some tweaks I've got in mind to improve the reliability next season. Anyway, this weekends are shown below and i'll update this post after all the games are completed.
My tissue prices, with comments based on current Betfair prices -
5 ticks possible on Fulham but Over 2.5 the main mover here.
Fulham at 1.60 Could shorten as 1.75 atm, BSP was 1.70
Reading at 6.30
Draw at 4.60
Unders at 2.05
Overs at 1.96 BSP was 1.84
No real movement here from initial price posted up on Friday.
Norwich at 2.34 Could shorten as 2.60 atm, BSP was 2.64
Aston Villa at 3.23
Draw at 3.80
Unders at 1.90
Overs at 2.11
6 ticks possible on Man City which I took and left as straight lay thankfully.
Swansea at 4.37 Value Bet at 5.30 atm, BSP was 5.10
Man City at 1.94 Value Lay at 1.78 atm, BSP was 1.84
Draw at 3.91
Unders at 1.83
Overs at 2.20
6 ticks possible on Spurs here (would always lay the odds on instead of backing odds against with PMT)
Spurs at 1.47
Southampton at 7.20 Value bet at 8.20 atm, BSP was 7.60
Draw at 5.49
Unders at 2.69
Overs at 1.59
3 ticks on WBA, was hoping for a bit more with this one tbh.
WBA at 1.64 Could shorten and Value bet at 2.46 atm, BSP was 2.40
Wigan at 5.61
Draw at 4.74
Unders at 2.34
Overs at 1.75
West Ham at 2.20
Newcastle at 3.40
Draw at 3.97
Unders at 2.06
Overs at 1.95
QPR at 5.96 Value bet at 9.0 atm,
Arsenal at 1.61 Value Lay at 1.44 atm,
Draw at 4.77
Unders at 2.28
Overs at 1.78
Liverpool at 1.98
Everton at 4.25
Draw at 3.85
Unders at 1.80
Overs at 2.26
Big drift on Utd, all down to the weakened team. These are the ones we want to be on, with unexpected team changes the prices can go crazy. It also illustrates why waiting for official team news is the least risky way to use the PMT strat.
Man Utd at 1.84 Could shorten and Value bet at 2.24 atm,
Chelsea at 4.38
Draw at 4.40
Unders at 2.33
Overs at 1.75
Sunderland at 2.12
Stoke at 4.19
Draw at 3.46
Unders at 1.54
Overs at 2.85
You'll see above when the best teams play weak opposition, they're often shorter than my tissue but this doesn't mean they should be laid with the PMT strategy. The main reason they could drift is if the short priced fav, unexpectedly rests one or two star players. Which is why I haven't said that Saints, QPR or Swansea could shorten in price but they are good value straight bets. Obviously, none of them are very likely to win their games so, you might want to lay the fav's instead to keep the draw on your side.
The ones which are more likely too move regardless of unexpected team news are closer matched teams where the price is simply wrong. Fulham, Norwich, WBA and Man Utd, all fall into this category but as with all PMT's team news is key and remember the trend is your friend!
Also, the matches above with no notes next to them are priced up just about right, inline with my tissue prices.
I'll add the potential pre match moves/value bets on Saturday and then update results next week. As usual, all comments and feedback is appreciated.
Good luck with your trading,
@DarkDyson
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