This weekends Premier League tissue prices shown below, with comments and current (time of posting) Betfair prices -
Chelsea price looks a touch high (has been slowly coming in), while Overs is low but, with Rafa expected to rest a number of key players we could well see the blues drift. Official team news is key, if there's no Mata, Hazard, Luiz, Oscar, etc then I'll be laying Chelsea and would expect to see Overs drift as well.
Aston Villa at 4.73
Chelsea at 1.79 Betfair at 1.86 atm
Draw at 4.35
Unders at 2.16
Overs at 1.86 Betfair at 1.74 atm
Spurs are too short so look a decent value lay, they have been very slowly drifting and Unders are value too. There's no significant team news expected but if Spurs do drift, the Unders should steam in a little too.
Stoke at 3.60
Spurs at 2.27 Betfair at 1.95 atm
Draw at 3.56
Unders at 1.66 Betfair at 1.86 atm
Overs at 2.53
Everton are a bit short but have been pretty stable, while Unders are excellent value and so worth backing on first impression. Beware that this is David Moyes last home game in charge which could either inspire the team to perform at their best or overwhelm them with emotion. Again no major team news in this match.
Everton at 1.75 Betfair at 1.54 atm
West Ham at 5.44
Draw at 4.08
Unders at 1.80 Betfair at 2.20 atm
Overs at 2.26
Liverpool too short as usual and Fulham could still use another point or three, the LFC lay could be the option again this week. As you can see the Unders are also great value and could come in if Liverpool drift, they will be without Gerrard & Agger but its not often they do drift because of the blind support they get.
Fulham at 3.11
Liverpool at 2.50 Betfair at 2.08 atm
Draw at 3.59
Unders at 1.72 Betfair at 2.26 atm
Overs at 2.38
Norwich a little short but have been slightly drifting and Overs are a touch of value but will steam if the fav's drift. Once again no serious team news expected, these prices might not move much by kick off but a few ticks of profit still possible.
Norwich at 2.43 Betfair at 2.28 atm
WBA at 2.94
Draw at 4.02
Unders at 2.20
Overs at 1.84 Betfair at 1.96 atm
Tissue prices not far off actuals here and again no major team news to move the markets but QPR at anything above 3.20 are good value.
QPR at 2.93
Newcastle at 2.49 Betfair at 2.38 atm
Draw at 3.87
Unders at 2.02
Overs at 1.98 Betfair at 1.96 atm
Betfair have these two much more evenly priced, but the Overs are good value compared to my price. No significant team news is expected here but both teams are value as the draw is too short. Based on the respective home & away records I'd rather have Sunderland on side in this match.
Sunderland at 2.04 Betfair at 2.84 atm
Southampton at 3.79
Draw at 4.07
Unders at 2.09
Overs at 1.92 Betfair at 2.20 atm
Tissue prices almost spot on here, although Overs are a touch short but again beware as this is Sir Alex Ferguson's last home game in charge so again that could inspire a big performance or the emotion of the occasion might get to the team. Had Ferguson not announced his retirement before this game I would confidently predict more than a few players would be rested but now, I expect a full strength team. It's a shame the price can't really get much shorter but still may get a few ticks as people could think they're buying money.
Man Utd at 1.30 Betfair at 1.32 atm
Swansea at 12.30
Draw at 6.60
Unders at 2.53
Overs at 1.65 Betfair at 1.55 atm
I'll add Tuesday's games to this post nearer the time as there's little money in the markets to compare prices. As you can see there's plenty of potential for PMT this weekend and some tasty looking straight value bets. Same as last time I'll update the post next week with details on where the prices actually moved and how many ticks could have been taken or lost, as the case might be.
I hope the tissue prices are of some use, to help guide you on PMT strat and/or getting on any straight value bets. As usual please feel free to comment, question and feedback on any of my tissue prices and I'll respond as soon as possible. Also, I'll be on Twitter updating my trading live as it happens.
Cheers and good luck in the markets.
@DarkDyson
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