EPL - Early Season Trades (P1)

The fixtures are out, the transfer window is open and Sky will be announcing their TV games very soon, this means the 2013/14 Premier League season is just a few weeks away! I can't wait to get back into trading some real football again, but in the meantime I'm gonna take a look at some early season trades which can offer a good opportunity to build up profits as the season progresses. However, for the moment these are just initial thoughts and I'm not in any markets yet.

The first market I'm interested in is the outright Premier League Winner market which, is obviously dominated by last seasons top three. Who in betting terms at least, have formed their own mini league at the head of the market and at the moment it's very hard to see any other teams even coming close to winning the title. The current prices (at the time of writing) on Betfair are - 

Man City at 3.35
Chelsea at 3.4
Man Utd at 3.7

Arsenal are some way back on 11.5 with Spurs and Liverpool in the distance at 34.00, but we'll come onto these three in a later post. As we all know, each of top three enter the new season with a new manager at the helm which might well be the first time it's ever happened. Even in today's instant success driven football era, it seems impossible to think that all three of the top teams in the country will start the season with a new gaffer in charge. 

Man Utd's current price of 3.7 has drifted from 3.25 where it had been for some time, maybe due to a lack of market confidence in David Moyes and a lack of new signings. Man City are slight favourites at the moment but obviously have a manager who, despite having a proven record has no experience in England. Meanwhile, Chelsea will be expecting to see instant success from Jose Mourinho now he's returned to his spiritual home at Stamford Bridge and his return is mostly likely the reason for their price. They finished 14pts behind United last season, have an aging core (Cech, Terry, Cole, Lampard) and lack a match winning, reliable, goal scorer. Which, makes it hard to see how they're shorter than the Champions in my opinion.

Although, this post is titled 'long term' trades I'm not actually going to be looking further than six weeks at a time with them because form and subsequently prices will obviously fluctuate during the season and thus should allow multiple trading opportunities. So, I'll take a look at the first six games of the season and see what potential opportunities it throws up. 

Man City have what looks like on paper, a relatively easy opening six games of the season -

Man City - Newcastle (H), Cardiff (A), Hull (H), Stoke (A), United (H), Villa (A)

City can realistically expect to go into the Derby with four wins already on the board which would heap early pressure on United in the title race and give them real confidence going into the big match.

Chelsea have a bit of a mixed bag in the first six games - 

Chelsea - Hull (H), United (A), Villa (H), Everton (A), Fulham (H), Spurs (A)

I'd fully expect Chelsea to beat Hull, Villa, Fulham and probably Everton as well but going away to United and Spurs so early in the season, they would have to be happy with a draw in both. But, it could work to their advantage in the end because the reverse fixtures against these two big rivals will come at home later in the season, by when Jose will be more likely to have settled on his best team and tactics.

United - Swansea (A), Chelsea (H), Liverpool (A), Palace (H), City (A), WBA (H)

United's start is nothing short of a nightmare for David Moyes, of course if United manage to get through them undefeated and/or by some miracle, win five or six it would be the dream start to life after Fergie. As you probably know, I'm a United fan so I'm obviously crossing everything in hope that we get this dream start but as you can tell I'm not overly confident we will and as a trader, it's obvious to me what positions offer the best chance of a successful trade.

Backing City simply has to be done, although they were largely disappointing last season and have an untried manager this season. The fresh start and inevitable new signings (Navas & Fernandinho already in) should see them start the season in a bullish mood and the four relatively easy fixtures to start the season with should help them find their feet without dropping any points. 

Meanwhile Chelsea and United will have had to play each other, along with combined games against Everton, Liverpool and Swansea before the fifth match of the season. On top of that, Chelsea face the trip to White Hart Lane in the sixth match which I feel strongly suggests City's current price should steam in nicely even before the derby and significantly after it, if they beat United. While, it should only drift if they drop 3+pts in their first four games and both United and Chelsea have strong starts.

You could lay United if you think think their hard start to the season will get the better of them but I'm happy just with the potential back of City because it looks the safer play, at the moment. Although, as I mentioned at the start I'm not in the market yet, I want to see what further new signings are made but I'll update things via Twitter as pre season progresses. All comments and feedback welcome as ever and I'll get to my other 'long term' trades in the next post, keep your eyes peeled!
@DarkDyson