I had a busy week last week and didn't get time to run through the matches so, didn't put any bets up but this week hasn't been so hectic. The bets and overview of the reasoning for each are shown below. As always, don't forget these are simply my small interest bets for the weekend and I put them up on the blog partly to avoid sounding like an aftertimer when they win (hopefully) and partly as a way of staying disciplined. I do my research, pick the bets, post them on here and put the money down at Betfair, then I'm done for the weekend.
If you like the sound of some or all them and back them, good luck. If not, good luck with your own bets but remember we're into the final few games of the season and as such results become even more unpredictable than usual.
Please note these bets where taken last night and some of the prices have obviously changed since then but, all of them have gone the right way for you as you can now get even better value than I got last night. Spurs drifting is the most surprising move and Southampton have shortened even further.
Man City V West Ham - City/City in HT/FT @1.85
City have been leading at HT in 7 of the last 10 home matches against similar level (Grade C & D) opposition and went on to win all 10 games as well. Meanwhile, the Hammers have been poor away from home this season and in their last 10 away games against Grade A teams, they've been behind at HT....you guessed it 7 times and yes, they also went on to lose all 10 matches. City don't score a lot of first half goals and West Ham did well to keep a clean sheet at Anfield recently but with such strong trends and a decent price, this bet has to be taken in my opinion.
Final score 2-1, winning bet no prob's, the trend is your friend!
Southampton V WBA - WBA Double Chance @2.00
Saints are on a run of 6 unbeaten which has seen them move away from the relegation zone with surprising ease. WBA on the other hand have dropped off with just 3 wins in their last 10 games which I guess is the main reason behind the current prices on offer. Saints @1.87 and WBA @4.70 which looks like some good value on WBA as my tissue price has them @3.65 but, I'm not overly confident about them being able to win given the current form & end of season unpredictability so double chance makes more sense while still being value.
Final score 0-3, winning bet and again very comfortable in the end.
Stoke V Norwich - Draw/Stoke in HT/FT @6.20
Stoke finally managed to win a match last week for only the second time in 15 games & Norwich also took a much needed 3 points which leaves both clubs just one win from safety. However, if ever a match screamed Under 2.5 goals then this is it and obviously the prices reflect this with Unders priced about right @1.61 but I do think Stoke will be thinking this is a match they can win, especially after last week. Norwich can be a tough nut to crack and would probably take a draw but I think Stoke could grab a 2nd half winner and the price is very tempting.
Final score 1-0, winning bet and a big price too!
Wigan V Spurs - Spurs to win @2.12
A huge game for both ends of the table which at first glance looks like a goalfest waiting to happen and perhaps a little surprisingly the Over 2.5 goals price isn't as short as I'd been expecting but it's still not really big enough to back. Also, with Wigan only scoring 2 in their last 4 games we could be left with just Spurs scoring the goals. I've got Spurs at sub 2.0 on my tissue prices so, with them available above evens they're easy to back and should come out on top in the end.
Final score 2-2, losing bet and 2 HUGE dropped points by Spurs although they nearly lost.
Everton V Fulham - Under 2.5 goals @2.24
Everton are good 25 ticks too short on my tissue which obviously makes Fulham good value but their performances have dropped off, despite battling well against Arsenal last week. Backing the value bet is always the best option but when a team has nothing to play for, like Fulham today I'd rather try and find some value in other markets. Under 2.5 goals looks very good value and would have been a winning bet in 5 of Evertons last 6 games and 4 of Fulhams last 6.
Final score 1-0, winning bet thanks to current form and another value price.
Newcastle V Liverpool - Lay Liverpool @2.48
As usual Liverpool are too short and even more so this week considering their star embarressment is serving the first match of a 10 match ban this weekend. As stated previously, I'm going back to the tried and tested play of simply laying Liverpool. It's been a very profitable play over the past few seasons, especially when they play at home but this week Newcastle are value and need the points to avoid relegation. Liverpool have nothing to play for in reality as they probably won't catch Everton now so, I expect Newcastle to take at least one point if not all three.
Final score 0-6, losing bet and embarressing from Newcastle.
That's it for now but I'll add Sunday and Monday bets to this post later so, keep an eye out for that. Good luck with your betting/trading this weekend and I'll catch you on Twitter to celebrate with a few, BOOMs!
Cheers,
@DarkDyson
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