With the FA Cup semi finals played at Wembley these days and the other semi final being a contest between Wigan & Willwall, you'd be forgiven for thinking this is the final. To be frank, the winner of this semi is going to be such an overwhelming favourite in the final, it is effectively the final. As much as I'd love to see either Chelsea or City suffer a shock defeat against Wigan or Millwall, the chances of it actually happening are remote to say the least.
Chelsea have basically made the FA Cup their own personal trophy in recent years having won 4 of the last 6. But this season has been inconsistent, despite a great start in the EPL their laskluster displays in the Champions League ended up costing Di Matteo his job. Rafa Benitez came in and steadied the ship somewhat but results seemed to have reversed with their league form dropping off while progressing to the Europa League semi finals along with today's FA Cup semi final. It's almost as if, because Rafa knows he won't be the manager next season he doesn't give a toss about finishing in a Champions League place and just wants more sliverware on his CV instead.
Man City are aiming for their second FA Cup win in 3 years having beaten Stoke in the 2011 final. However, after their pitiful exit from the Champions League and the defence of their Premier League title running out of steam and now time. The FA Cup offers their last chance to salvage what's been a very disappointing season from total failure. Even if they do win the competition it still might not be enough to save Mancini from the sack, reaults and time will tell.
Trading Opportunities
Match Odds -
Chelsea 3.40
Draw 3.50
Man City 2.36
City look like they're going to finish the season strongly after beating the champions elect Utd at Old Trafford last week and that will have given them a huge boost going into the semi final on Sunday. They have Kompany back & healthy to partner the impressive Nastasic in defence and although there's some talk that Joe Hart could miss out in favour of Costel Pantilimon, who has played in all City's FA Cup games so far this season. That shouldn't have a major impact on their defence because Hart hasn't been at his best this season anyway. David Silva is a serious injury doubt and although he too hasn't had a great season compared to last year, he would be a big miss.
As mentioned Chelsea have been inconsistent but seem to save their best for the cup competitions, however with the deep runs in two cup competitions the fixtures are piling up fast and the squad is being streched to its limits. Cahill and Cole are the two known injured players while a question mark remains over Ba's participation too. Chelsea have lots of quality midfield options which they rely on with only Torres and Ba as recognised strikers but Mata, Hazard and Lampard amongst other have all been excellent and chipped in with plenty of goals.
City have a strong record against Chelsea with 5 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 8 meetings between the two. They also boast a +4 goal difference over those games which I'll come onto in the next section. Chelsea's price looks a little big to me and although I think City will prevail to make the final, I think it'll be quite a close match. Plus, the average fan will see Pantilimon's inclusion ahead of Hart (if its confirmed) as a real weakness so, I think there's a possible PMT trade here by laying City based on official team news.
Goal Market Odds -
Under 2.5 at 2.00
Over 2.5 at 1.98
These prices look about right based on the fact that only 50% of the last 8 matches between these two have gone Over 2.5 goals but obviously we need to dig a little deeper before making any decisions.
In Chelsea's games against similar level (Grade A) opposition so far this season 66% have seen Over 2.5 goals, while City's have seen slightly less at 57% going Over 2.5 goals. Perhaps crucially, both matches between these two in the league this season had Under 2.5 goals. As with a lot of matches of such importance as we near the end of the season, I would expect the start to be very cagey and tight with both teams slowly trying to estabilsh control and dominate possession. However, I do think we'll see both teams scoring a goal and because this is a cup match and with no replay involved, there's no need to hold anything back, its winner takes all which, means Over 2.5 goals is more likely in this match than usual.
If the predicted tight start does materialise, it gives us a great opportunity to open a trade later in play than usual and so benefit from a better price. I'll be looking to open TOOT but ideally from the 15th min or later, onwards. Depending on how the match shapes up over the first 15mins, I might wait and open just Part 2 of the strategy around the 20min mark. This would be a safer option based on the inconclusive Under/Over stats but will still produce a healthy profit because the price should be around the 1.60+ level by then.
Finally, with closely matched teams who I think should both score in the match, it goes without saying that I'll be using the Comeback strategy after the first goal and possibly again after further goals. The Engame strat is also going to be worth consideration because in a knockout competition, if you're 2-1 down you might as well throw everyone forward to try and equalise, as letting in another goal and losing 3-1 makes no difference at all.
Summary -
I think ultimately, City will prove to be too strong for Chelsea and the game should see Over 2.5 goals but I'll bide my time and look to open my positions after the 15th min. Official team news is always vital and we could see a slight drift on City, especially is Hart doesn't start the game. I also wouldn't put you off backing BTTS inplay at the same time as opening TOOT which is something I need to start doing more of to be honest.
I'll give live updates via Twitter as the match progresses and detail my extra time and penalty shoot out tactics, should the game reach that stage.
Cheers and good luck this weekend!
@DarkDyson
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