Part one of a huge Super Sunday serving from Sky is a mouth watering prospect, as Man City visit White Hart Lane to take on Spurs.
The north London club are desperate for points in the race for a Champions League place which, has started slipping away from them after picking up just 4pts from their last 4 matches. Meanwhile, Man City have put the disappointment of failing to defend (its all but mathematically done) their Premier League title behind them, with 4 wins in a row including an FA Cup semi final and the derby at Old Trafford.
Trading Options
Match Odds
Spurs at 3.15
Draw at 3.55
Man City at 2.44
Based on the face value of my tissue price, Spurs are good value but obviously the current price takes into account the fact that Bale, Lennon and Defoe are all serious doubts for the match due to on going injury concerns. However, Man City also have serious injury doubts with both Silva and Aguero in a race to be fit for Sunday. This gives us a potential PMT opportunity because if one (ideally Bale, who is in the squad for Sunday) or more of the Spurs players are named in the starting eleven, their price should shorten a fair amount. The news I've read about Man City is that Silva is unlikely to be fit but Aguero should be fine, obviously if neither make it we'll hopefully get a bigger steam on Spurs. Please note that if Bale is named in the starting eleven, then the Over 2.5 price will also steam in so be prepared to get on both markets before KO.
Spurs record at home this season is W8 D5 L3 with a +7 GD (goal difference), while Man City also have a W8 D5 L3 away with a +6 GD. However, when looking a little deeper into both teams form against similar level opposition the records are markedly different. Spurs record in recent meetings at home against level one (my own personal gradings) opposition reads, W2 D6 L3 with a -6 GD. While Man City's recent games playing away against level two opposition reads, W1 D3 L4 with a -4 GD which are poor, woeful in Man City's case considering they're the reigning champions. However, the head to head record does offer them some comfort having beaten Spurs in all four of the last league meetings with a +7 GD as well. Even playing at home with a full strength team, beating City is potentially a step too far for Spurs on this occasion.
Goal Market Odds
Under 2.5 at 2.04
Over 2.5 at 1.94
Current form shows, 6 of the last 8 Spurs games have gone Over 2.5 goals but only 4 of City's last 8 have done so. For the season overall 50% of Spurs home and just 43% of City's away matches have gone Over 2.5 and recent form against similar opposition also shows that just 6 of 11 Spurs home matches were Over 2.5, while only 4 of 8 Man City away games saw a winning Over 2.5 bet.
These percentages alone are simply not high enough to give any great confidence to anyone wanting to back Over 2.5 goals on Sunday, especially if key attacking players are missing from both teams starting lineups. However, with Spurs in such desperate need of points and City's good recent form it's unlikely this match ends goalless. But, it does make sense to be a little more cautious when the stats aren't as strong as I'd usually like them to be. With this in mind I'll most likely be looking to open just Part 2 of TOOT (Over 1.5 goals) from around 20mins into the match. This will depend on which of the injured players return and how the match shapes up during the first 15-20mins but, I'll update what I'm doing in real time via Twitter as usual.
There could be a good opportunity for an FB trade at the start of this match as liquidity is bound to high and with so much pressure on the match it could be an explosive start which would be enough to hold the price around it's BSP for a few minutes. After the game has settled down into a little bit of a pattern, there might be an opportunity to dip in and out with some TD trades but it won't take that long for the Unders price to reach the 1.70 - 1.60 range and slow right down.
Both teams score a lot of late goals so depending on the scoreline and how the match is going at the time, it might well be worth opening the Endgame strat, especially as Spurs could be throwing the kitchen sink at City by that stage of the match! Finally, as always it's going to be worth considering the Comeback strat on Sunday, these big matches are rarely one sided blowouts and with such low laying prices available on the team currently ahead, the possible rewards are well worth the risk.
Summary
Again, I think City will run out winners in the end this week. Spurs form has not been good and although the return of Gareth Bale (if it happens) would be a huge boost, I find it hard to see them beating City (as much as I'd like them too). I'm undecided on Over 2.5 goals so will wait to see how the game starts but saying that a 2-1 or more likely 1-2 scoreline would in no way be a shock. Either way I'm looking forward to a great day of action on the pitch and in the markets so, I hope the game lives up to its billing.
Cheers and good luck this weekend!
@DarkDyson
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