Couldn't really have asked for a better start to this match with Manchester City drifting a long way before KO, as Pantilimon started in goal as mentioned in the preview. Unfortunately, I was a little late getting in the market & early getting out but was still able to grab 2.32 to 2.46 which I was very pleased with however, the City drift just kept on going and went as high as 2.60! I don't usually get out until shortly before KO but the price seemed like it was about to top out and I was wary of a bounce back (lol couldn't have got that more wrong!) Certainly made the right call in predicting the drift and any green is good so, notes taken and will learn from it next time out.
After a lively opening 10-15mins from City, they would even have scored if not for a brilliant tip around the post save from Cech. I decided to open Part 1 of TOOT at 2.22 and after City dominated the first 20mins, Chelsea started to get into the game. City actually had to clear one off the line as reserve keeper, Pantilimon came for but, got nowhere near to a Chelsea free kick. Chelsea showing some promise in attack convinced me to open Part 2 of TOOT at 1.70, now I just needed a couple of goals!
Goal!!!! On 35mins City took the lead through Nasri and usually this would have been the perfect time for a goal when using TOOT. But, I'd literally just opened a Time Decay (known as TD, explanation post coming soon) trade to reduce the liability on Part 2 so, unfortunately only my Part 1 position benefitted from it. However, that's exactly the reason why I trade this strategy. Once open on both parts, it still has the potential to return a profit, even when a goal comes while I'm open in a TD trade. In all honesty, I'd started TD a little earlier than usual as the price was moving quite quickly.
City, could and should have gone in 2-0 up at the break but a poor cross from Milner and and even worse finish from Kompany saw the chance go to waste. The first half goal left me in a position to make a profit on the match but if Chelsea start strongly in the 2nd half, I'd certainly look to open the Comeback strategy.
Not my day today as I'm caught in TD again, by an early goal at the start of the 2nd half from Aguero which puts City 2-0 up. So, looking at break even with TOOT which is never a bad thing to be honest but obviously frustrating, after having made the right call to use the strategy in the first place. With City 2-0 up and trading at 1.10 it made sense to use some of my PMT profit to open the Comeback strategy, in the hope Chelsea don't go down without a fight and manage to score the 3rd goal of the game.
Just after bringin on Torres for Mikel, Demba Ba grabs a goal back for Chelsea and I'm able to green up Comeback at 1.37 boosting the profit on Match Odds market nicely. Game very much on now and definite potential for Engame as Chelsea are sure to push for an equaliser and leave gaps at the back for City to exploit.
No joy with Endgame this time as City ran out 2-1 winners to qualify for the FA Cup final. I was a little greedy/unlucky to get caught twice while on TD but still made a nice profit from PMT and Comeback so, can't complain with that but will learn from the experience. I called the match pretty much spot on in the preview and should really have taken BTTS inplay as well but again happy that the research proved to be correct.
Back soon with more live trading and general posts, in the meantime good luck if you're in the markets.
@DarkDyson
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