It was a frustrating week for my straight bets last time out with Liverpool failing to break down West Ham at Anfield, Newcastle scoring an injury time winner against Fulham and 20 shots but only 2 goals at Reading. However, those are the joys of betting on football and part of the reason I moved my serious gambling over to trading in the first place.
As mentioned all the straight bets I take are only for very small stakes, just for an interest because if my research has thrown up a good bet, it makes sense to try and take advantage of it, even if I'm not trading that particular match. Below is a brief overview of my thoughts on each match and I'll add the bets I'm taking tomorrow.
Arsenal V Norwich - Arsenal to Score in Both Halves @1.85
Hard to look beyond a comfortable Arsenal win here but Norwich are capable of defending well and have only lost 1 in 3 against Arsenal. Rosicky is missing after he picked up an injury & Mertesacker is banned but potentially both Wilshire & Walcott could return. After further research, I've convinced myself Arsenal are simply too strong here & although Norwich might well try and park the bus, the stats and price add up to a good opportunity. Arsenal to win both halves also worth consideration as Norwich do struggle to score goals.
Final score 3-1, losing bet although you wouldn't think so from the scoreline.
Aston Villa V Fulham - Draw @3.45
Both in solid runs of form at the moment and despite Martin Jol saying otherwise, Fulham are safe from relegation so, it would be no surprise if Villa showed a little more desire to win this match than the visitors. They need to win home games like this if they're going to stay in the EPL, while Fulham would be happy enough with a draw. Villa rarely keep a clean sheet which helps our betting options. Under 2.5 is also a fair option based on stats and price, considering Fulham's good form.
Final score 1-1, winning bet and a nice price too.
Everton V QPR - BTTS @1.96
A Champions League place next season seems highly unlikely for Everton now, while QPR seem destined to be playing in the Championship next term. Everton are able to welcome back both Fellaini and Pienaar this weekend which could make all the difference in this one. Although, QPR have a good record at Goodison Park & have not lost against Everton in 3 games. Probably bet of the weekend in my opinion.
Final score 2-0, losing bet. Last weeks heartbreak has done for QPR, all but relegated.
Reading V Liverpool - Over 2.5 in play @best price possible after 10mins
I hate betting on Liverpool, in fact over the past few season's laying them almost every week has proved very profitable because of the their amazing inconsistency and ridiculously short prices. However, Reading are the worst team in the EPL and Liverpool have arguably been better away from home than at Anfield this season. Similar to the Arsenal match above, lots of obvious bets but little value.
Final score 0-0, losing bet but at least they had a few more shots than last week. Going back to laying them every week.
Southampton V West Ham - No Bet
Both teams have avoided relegation (barring a total collapse) without too much trouble, Saints by scoring goals & beating big teams while the Hammers have been solid at the back. A match of contrasting styles which West Ham comfortably won 4-1, in the corresponding fixture earlier in the season. But Southampton are unbeaten in 4 and should be much tougher opposition this time. Double Chance, West Ham/Draw is value but Saints in great form while the Hammers just don't score enough away from home for my liking.
Newcastle V Sunderland - HT Draw @2.30
HUGE game this weekend in which a Newcastle win would just about guarantee their safety while also banging another nail in their local rivals relegation coffin. Sunderland are heading in the wrong direction with no wins in 9 and are in real danger of being relegated. But would a victory in the derby be the catalyst for beating the drop. Newcastle have won their last 4 home games & will probably be safe with one more win, this one should be as tense and close as ever.
Final score 0-3, losing bet and Di Canio is up and running....literally!
Stoke V Manchester United - Utd -1 @2.06
Stoke are heading in the same direction as Sunderland after having only picked up 5pts from 12 games this year. Utd will want to bounce back from the derby defeat and move 3pts closer to what seems like an inevitable 20th league title (fingers crossed). Going to Stoke is never easy, even if they're playing poorly but Utd are one team who do well against them having won 8 out of 9, with 3 wins and a draw in 4 at the Britannia Stadium. Plus, RVP is due a goal and has a great scoring record against them.
Final score 0-2, winning bet and all very comfortable for the champions elect. #20
FA Cup Semi Finals
Wigan V Millwall - No Bet
I guess Wigan should win but I don't know enough about Millwall to even contemplate betting on the match and to be honest, it's of very little interest to me. If Figueroa can manage a clean sheet, it'll help my dream team so I'll be cheering for that!
Chelsea V Manchester City -
This is the only match which I'm trading live over the weekend and as such I'll post a trading preview on here before the game. Initial thoughts are that both teams will score but City will win, the full preview will be up soon as mentioned.
As usual, I'll post up results after the games and let's hope for a little more luck than last week!
Cheers and good luck!
@DarkDyson
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