There's a saying in trading, 'the trend is your friend' and that certainly rang true in the pre match market move in the derby tonight. With Utd drifting all the way out to 2.60 at KO, I scratched my PMT position at 2.58 but took a small straight bet on Utd as the price was just too big to miss. Worth noting that that Unders in 2.5 goals market came in a good few ticks on team news, probably due to no Aguero or Dzeko for City.
The game started quite open with City creating a few half chances but Utd managing to hold their own on the whole. I held an FB (full explanation on the Football page soon) trade open on the Over 2.5 market for the first 5mins but despite a few half chances I closed the position for a tiny loss. But with the match remaining lively I opened the first part of TOOT by backing O2.5 goals at 2.12 with 3% stake and was able to reduce the liability by backing Under 2.5 with my potential profit, down to 1.62 when the market slowed as the money piled up.
As the the match progressed, both sides huffed and puffed without really creating any chances of real note. Yaya Toure was clearly staying deep to give extra protection to City's defence and provide an extra body in the centre of the pitch to help them keep possession. Utd did get a couple of quick breaks after City got caught further up field in Utd's half when pressing their possession advantage but only one attack came close when Rafael's looping effort hit the post but Hart easily had it covered. With the limited chances in the match I held off opening the second part of TOOT until shortly before HT when I backed O1.5 goals at 1.97 with a reduced stake of 4% because of the shorter time in the market.
Unfortunately, when City took the lead on 51mins, I was reducing liability in the 1.5 goals market and although it means essentially no loss, it's obvoiusly a little frustrating to miss out on a profit. I had planned to exit at around 1.62 again when the market slowed, the goal went in as the market reached 1.64 but 2 ticks might as well have been 20 in this instance.
There's a strategy I use with most favourites who go behind at home, simply called Comeback. On this occasion I opened the trade by laying City at 1.58 with 2% liability, I had planned to drip in another 2% at 1.42 or at the best price possible if City scored again to go 0-2 ahead. However, Utd scored (well Kompany OG in fact) the equaliser shortly afterwards and I was able to green up the trade 6mins after opening at 3.70 for tidy profit. I always just green up this trade immediately after the goal to make sure I don't get caught by a quick goal going in at the wrong end. The profit can easily be moved around later in the game if I think another goal is likely.
Once Utd got back on level terms, they really started pouring forward looking for the winner and that inevitably left gaps at the back for City to exploit. It seemed highly likely that there'd be another goal if not two so, I used the potential profit from the first successful Comeback trade, to back both Utd and City at 5.00 which left me break even if the game finished 1-1 but a very nice profit if we got a winning goal.
As I was still open with the second part TOOT, on O2.5 goals I didn't necessarily need to double up by moving the profit onto Utd & City from the Comeback trade but I felt it was a great opportunity to maximise my profit from the game. It paid off when Aguero scored, what turned out to be the winning goal in the 78min. A few other guys I trade with, were on the Endgame strategy here and it paid off again, just a couple of minutes after opening the trade.
A decent profit on the night but it would have been much better, had I not been caught while reducing liability on the O1.5 market with the first goal. Plus, the result sucked big time but Utd have a history of making life difficult for themselves. I'll give full write ups of the FB and Comeback trades on the Football page, along with TOOT Extra so keep an eye out for those in the coming days.
Hope you all had a profit night, back for more tomorrow in the Champions League!
@DarkDyson
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