The match got off to a lively start, with Remy hitting the post for QPR within the first 10mins which was obviously a good sign that we might see a few goals in the game.
Shortly after, I opened the first part of TOOT by backing Over 2.5 at 2.20 with a 3% stake. If the Unders side of the 2.5 goals market is still above 1.80 once open in part one, it's not a bad idea to reduce your liability by backing the Under 2.5 with the potential profit that's sitting on the Over 2.5, however the match was quite open so I decided not to on this occasion. If reducing I would generally stay in the market for as long as the price is moving which is usually until the Under 2.5 reaches 1.70 but if the game is particularly void of goalmouth action, it can drop to 1.50 relatively quickly. If a goal is scored while reducing liability it won't really cost you anything, just the potential profit from the Over 2.5 position and a tiny loss on the Under 2.5 side of market if the match finishes with two goals or less.
Usually, I'd be looking to open the second part of TOOT at anytime between 20-30mins into the match but on this occasion Bobby Z got himself sent off on 21mins and as most experienced traders know, red cards are generally a nightmare for us. Although, I remained confident there would be a few goals, it made sense to hold my position open with part one and wait and see what pattern the match settled into before thinking about opening part two of the trade.
0-0 at half time but a goal or two wasn't out of the question, although at some point Wigan would surely start to think a draw wasn't such a bad result. QPR still had to go for the win so, I thought there would still be an opportunity to open either part two of TOOT or the Endgame strategy later on in the match. However, I decided to close part one for a 1.5% loss because very few matches (about 12%) have Over 2.5 goals after the first half finished goalless.
After a lively start to the second half from Wigan and with QPR needing nothing less than a win I opened part two of TOOT by backing Over 1.5 goals at 2.72 with a reduced stake of 3.5% (because of the shorter time in the market). QPR soon got Adel Taarabt on and began to take control of the match but without really testing Robles in the Wigan goal. Unfortunately, I got the feeling this match just wasn't going my way so cut my losses on part two as well by redding up for a 2% loss.
With Wigan really pushing forward late in the game, I opened the Engame strategy by laying No Goal in the Next Goal market at 1.71 with 4% liability because QPR have enough pace and quality in Remy, Townsend and Taarabt to create chances on the break. Sure enough on 85mins, Remy scored a screamer from a fast break attack after Wigan had a free kick deep in QPR's half was charged down.
However, the drama wasn't complete as Wigan scored a very late equaliser through a cracking Moloney direct free kick, but it was too late for my O1.5 position of course. A small profit at the end of the day and a score draw as predicted in my preview (should have backed it too, lol). The red card made a huge difference and certainly makes trading a lot more tricky but I felt like I traded the match well and took some good learnings from it too.
Back soon with more previews and trading reviews, in the meantime good luck if you're in the markets.
@DarkDyson
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