This is a classic '6 pointer' relegation match, if there ever was one! Rangers have seemed doomed almost since the start of the season and a loss here would leave the gap to 17th place and safety at a massive 10 points, with just six games left to play.
Wigan have again found form at the most vital stage of season, after winning three of their last four games but with an FA Cup semi final at Wembley next week, will some of their players lack a little focus despite this match being far more important?
Trading Opportunities -
Wigan at 3.20
Over 2.5 at 1.90
Although, QPR have struggled to score goals all season (they've only scored 11 at home in total) and Wigan aren't exactly freescoring with only 36 goals in 30 games, I think the match will go Over 2.5 goals and the 1.90 available certainly looks decent value.
QPR have scored nine goals in their last four games while 71.4% of Wigan's away games have gone Over 2.5 as well. As you can imagine, with these two teams struggling down at the bottom of the table, neither of them keep many clean sheets. Although, QPR did initially improve at the back after Harry took over, they're now in such deep danger of relegation that they have to be more concerned with scoring goals and subsequently winning matches than keeping clean sheets.
I feel confident trading the TOOT strategy in this match and although the O2.5 price is already decent, I'll aim to take a higher price inplay as usual. QPR have only managed three first half goals at home so far this season while Wigan have also scored just three first half goals, away from home. With huge pressure on both teams in this match, it would be no surprise to see a cagey start and ultimately a draw wouldn't be a bad result for Wigan. It would maintain the gap between the two teams and due to their FA Cup run they still have a game in hand over their relegation rivals. Based on this a bet on 2nd half to be the highest scoring makes sense but there's little value in 1.90 no matter how likley it seems.
Wigan have a decent record away from home against similar level opposition so the 3.20 does look a little value, I'm not convinced they'll win the match but there should be some room for this price to move so I'll be looking at PMT on official team news. Wigan's only two defeats in their last seven games were against Chelsea and Liverpool, where it almost looked like they were saving themselves for better points scoring opportunities. While QPR have lost four of their last six, including defeats by Fulham and Aston Villa so, Wigan DNB at 2.24 is also an option.
Summary -
I think this match could end up a score draw and another frustrating day for Rangers fans, as their team move closer to the drop. Potentialy a slow start to the match but O2.5 offers a good trading oppoortunity. Wigan's price has room to move but with key players from both teams expected to start, the price might not move that much.
If you're wondering what the hell I'm talking about with PMT & TOOT, you'll find explanations of these strategies on the Football page of the blog. Please feel free to comment or contact me on Twitter @DarkDyson if you have any questions or thoughts.
I'll review how the trades go in a later post, good luck!
DarkDyson
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