This is a key match in the race for the Champions League places with Spurs in 3rd place on 57pts, while Everton sit just 6pts behind in 6th place on 51pts.
A defeat this weekend for David Moyes team, would probably signal the end of their chances of qualifying for next seasons Champions League competition. Although, 4th place still wouldn't be out of the question, they would need to start relying on other results to keep them in the hunt. While looking over their shoulder at cross city rivals Liverpool, breathing down their necks.
Trading Opportunities -
Spurs at 1.93 *Bale injured last night, price is now 2.32! (thoughts below)
Over 2.5 at 1.98
However, Everton do come into this game in a rich vein of form having won their last three matches. A run which included a 2-0 victory over the current champions Man City. Another factor in their favour is Spurs play in the Europa League this evening and although they're at home, their record in weekend games after playing a Europa League tie reads - P8 W4 D0 L4 and this includes a 2-1 defeat at Everton after they'd beaten Panathinaikos at White Hart Lane on the Thursday night. Spurs have a fairly big squad but AVB has tended to play very strong teams in the Europa League unlike a lot of other coaches, could this prove to be a telling factor at the business end of Spurs season, will they run out of steam at the vital moment?
On the plus side for Spurs and it's a huge plus in my opinion, Everton are without their two best players as both Fellaini and Pienaar are serving out the last match of their respective two game bans. They only just overcame a poor Stoke side, 1-0 without their two keys players last time out and to do the same at Spurs, without them is a very big ask.
Looking at the match stats on BetForm Pro we can immediately see a couple of good value opportunities which fit my trading strategies and so deserve serious investigation.
Spurs are currently priced 1.93 in the Match Odds market which, is a big price when you consider Everton are without two of their best players. Tonight's Europa League match against Basel, will obviously have an impact on the Spurs starting team come Sunday but, I'll be looking to open PMT on Spurs when the official starting teams are released, in anticipation of their price shortening.
The other opportunity is in the 2.5 goals market where the value is in backing Over 2.5 goals which is currently priced at 1.98. However, with both Fellaini and Pienaar missing the match I'm a little concerned that we might end up with only one team scoring the goals. Yes, Spurs could win 3-0 but it doesn't seem likely, especially with Defoe out injured but at the same time they haven't kept many clean sheets this season. As you can see I'm not convinced so, I'll see how the match starts and in particular how attacking Everton are set up and go from there. It's still potentially a good opportunity for my TOOT trade but, I'll see how the game develops inplay before opening the trade and might end up only playing one part of it.
If you're wondering what the hell I'm talking about with PMT & TOOT, you'll find explanations of these strategies on the Football page of the blog. Please feel free to comment or contact me on Twitter @DarkDyson if you have any questions or thoughts.
I'll review how the trades go in a later post, good luck!
DarkDyson
Thoughts Update 05/04/13 -
Well, I did say that the Europa League match would have an impact on the Spurs team for Sunday but obviously Bale getting injured wasn't quite what I had in mind. As you can see above, Spurs price disappeared up into the stratosphere as soon as it became apparent that Bale's injury would keep him out for at least a few weeks if not more (he's due a scan today so eye's peeled for further news). If only I'd been at home last night to jump on that drift, although from what I hear it moved so quickly that not many were able to get on.
It's tricky now to predict where the price will go from here, but I'm inclined to think that it'll come back in after what is an initial over reaction to the loss of Bale. It still doesn't change the fact that Everton are without Fellaini & Pienaar which when playing away against Spurs makes it incredibly difficult for them even without Bale.
Spurs record without Bale this season reads - P8 W4 D1 L3 and two of those defeats were away at Chelsea & Inter Milan so can be excused to some degree. The third defeat was actually against Everton earlier in the season but this is also open to debate as Spurs were 1-0 up with just 2mins remaining, but Everton managed to score twice before the end. Pienaar scoring the winner at the death. So, at home even with Fellaini & Pienaar against Spurs without Bale, Everton were very lucky to win the match. Everton have been poor away from home with just 4 wins and only 19 goals scored. Bale is a big loss but I think Spurs have enough quality to win the match and their price is now obviously much bigger too.
I'll still look for PMT on official team news but will monitor the market over the next two days to see if it starts to correct itself or not, after the initial reaction to Bale's injury.
No comments:
Post a Comment