A bit of a mixed bag for me on this one but a profitable match in the end and a fantastic result which leaves Utd, just one win (tomorrow night at home against Villa hopefully) from the 20th title!
As advised, the Spurs price steamed in nicely before KO, from the 3.15 as it was when I published the preview on Friday to 2.82 before bouncing slightly. The City team was released first and it was the lack of Aguero in the starting team which got the price moving. Then it was nicely supplemented with the news that Bale had made the starting eleven for Spurs and I was left with a nice green book to start the match with.
I opened the session with an FB trade on the O2.5 as there was plenty of money in the market, holding the price up however it still moved a little quicker than I was expecting and so I exited the trade for a tiny loss. Shortly after closing the trade, City opened the scoring through Nasri but the goal did present another opportunity which I took straight away. With City 1-0 up, they were trading at 1.62 and that's the price I took when opening the Comeback (Lay City at 1.62 with 2% liability) strategy. The plan with this strategy is to green up as soon as the losing team equalises or lay the winning team again if they go 2-0 up. Obviously, with the second lay it sometimes makes sense to wait a few minutes or more if necessary, to see if the losing team actually have a chance of coming back into the match or not before risking more of your bank opposing the short priced favourite.
As the game progressed through the first half, City looked comfortably the better team while Spurs lacked any real pace or width in their play. However, playing at home with Bale back in the team and with Spurs is critical need of a win to boost their Champions League hopes, I felt further goals were highly likely. As such I opened Part 1 of TOOT by backing Over 2.5 goals at 1.70 with 5% stake which, was at around the 25th minute of the match. The reason I only opened Part 1 and not both parts of the strategy, is that with one goal already scored I prefer to be more cautious and just aim for a full win from 2 further goals in the game rather than 3 more.
Shortly before half time Nasri had a great chance to score his and City's second goal of game but could only poke his shot wide of the lefthand upright. Unfortunately, that proved to be the closest attempt on goal for sometime and with Spurs taking their time to force their way back into the match, I reached my exit point for TOOT and so closed the trade with a small loss. It turned out to be one of those days, as Spurs scored the equaliser literally moments after I'd closed for a loss! But, that's the way trading goes sometimes and you've got to take the rough with the smooth, then move on regardless.
It wasn't all doom and gloom for me though because the Spurs equaliser did enable me to green up my Comeback trade from early in the first half. After Spurs had got themselves back into the match, further goals were certain as they pushed for the winner they needed and left more space at the back for City. However, it loooked like there was only going to be one winner with Spurs really taking control of the match. This meant a great opportunity for the Endgame strategy, however with the match currently tied at 1-1 and plenty of green to play with in the match odds market, I decided to use this market instead of the Next Goal market and took advantage of the 1.56 Draw price that was available to lay the draw. As expected Spurs made their dominance and momentum pay when they took the lead shortly after, at which point I greened up the Draw lay before they went on to seal the win when Bale scored to make it 3-1 with a delicate chipped finish over Joe Hart.
Great result for Spurs and for me with a tidy profit at the end of the day and although the goals came slightly too late for my TOOT trade, taking the loss when I did was the correct thing to do so, I'm happy with how I traded the game overall. On another day the goals will come earlier and the profit will be even bigger.
I'll be back during the week but probably only taking low lay opportunities as they arise rather than full match trading, I'll explain more about this in a new blog post tomorrow.
Good luck if you're trading.
@DarkDyson
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